Riding on the Modi wave, the BJP is trying hard to break the jinx in Muslim-dominated Sambhal in Western Uttar Pradesh this time, where the party hopes to sail through owing to the division in Muslim votes.
A high-profile seat, with Samajwadi Party chief Mulayam Singh Yadav winning the seat twice in 1998 and 1999 and party general secretary Ram Gopal Yadav in 2004, is likely to witness different type of electoral contest this time.
The tussle between the SP and its bête noire BSP is going to be keen as two brothers are pitted against each other. Shafiqur Rahman Barq, the sitting BSP member is now SP candidate and his cousin Akilur Rahman is pitched as BSP nominee from this lok Sabha seat.
Barq — who came in the limelight after he boycotted Vande Matram in Parliament — was denied ticket by BSP supremo Mayawati and the SP was quick to lap him, despite resistance from other party leaders, including Azam Khan.
Meanwhile, Satyapal Saini of the BJP is depending upon the Modi wave to register his victory, which has so far eluded the saffron party on this seat. In fact, the BJP is rather optimistic to turn the fortunes this time through Saini, because of the division of Muslim votes.
In the past, the Congress and the SP have won this seat thrice each, the BSP and Janata Dal twice each.However, presence of mafia-turned-politician DP Yadav in the fray from Rashtriya Parivartan Dal has made the contest interesting.BSP had won this parliamentary seat last in 2009 but in the last Assembly elections of 2012, SP had won all the five Assembly segments — Kundarki, Bilari,Chandausi, Sambhal and Asmoli.
The equations in 2014 don’t seem to be in the favour of Samajwadi Party with the the ghost of Muzaffarnagar riots still lingering over the entire area. Though, SP may have romped home in the past with the solid combination of Muslims and Yadavs, but this combination may not work this time because the large population of Muslims, around seven lakh, is expected to be divided among the SP, BSP and the Congress.
The Congress, meanwhile, has fielded Acharya Pramod Krishnan, a known name in local cultural circles, but the general anti-incumbency factor against the party may also harm him to an extent.Sambhal, which was carved out from Moradabad as a separate district, has an electorate of 16.60 lakh, 47 per cent of which are women. A total of 13 candidates are in the fray on this seat, going to polls in the second phase of lok Sabha polls on April 17.