As the vexatious six-decade-old problem in Andhra Pradesh was inching towards a historic denouement, the sharply contrasting moods in the two regions of the State foretell the problems and challenges which lie ahead.
But it is also true that separate Telangana State will not be carved out overnight. The meetings of the Congress Working Committee and the UPA coordination panel could be at the best described as the beginning of the last phase in the process.
Given the anger among the supporters of united Andhra Pradesh, the Congress will face a severe political backlash in the regions and may face complete whitewash in the next elections. The Central Government has rushed additional paramilitary forces to the State to prevent any untoward incident like violent reaction in Andhra and Rayalaseema.
The immediate fallout could be the collapse of the Kiran Kumar Reddy Government as majority of the Congress legislators from Andhra and Seema were likely to resign in protest against the division. The CM himself has indicated that he would not like to oversee the process of bifurcation of the State.
In the Andhra and Rayalseema regions, with 13 of the 23 districts will have 25 of the 42 lok Sabha seats, the Congress will face a big challenge to compensate this loss and will hope that it will be suitably rewarded by the people of Telangana with most of the 17 lok Sabha seats. It will largely depend on whether the Telangana Rashtra Samiti, the main champion of Telangana cause, would agree to merge with the Congress.
The State has given 33 lok Sabha seats to the Congress, the biggest contingent of MPs in the present lower House.
The Congress will hope to get 15 seats from Telangana and four or five lok Sabha seats in the Andhra-Seema regions on account of the personal clout of some of its leaders.
Among other political parties, main Opposition Telugu Desam Party was divided on the regional lines. The procrastination of TDP president N Chandrababu Naidu in declaring a clear support for Telangana has cost the party dearly.
BJP’s top leader Sushma Swaraj sent a congratulatory message to the people of Telangana even before the Central Government or Congress made any announcement. BJP president Rajnath Singh and others had promised that if the NDA comes to power, formation of Telangana State would be their top priority.
The YSR Congress Party of jailed YS Jaganmohan Reddy was also in utter confusion and seems to have lost the hold over Telangana completely. After its 16 MlAs hastily resigned in protest against Telangana, they completely alienated Telangana leaders of the party. It has resulted in an exodus of leaders and workers of Telangana. Now the party will be confined to the Andhra and Seema regions.
MIM, the Muslim political party with base mainly in Hyderabad city, was always opposed to formation of Telangana. Muslims will have a ratio of 16 per cent in population of Telangana compared to 9 per cent in Andhra Pradesh.
Among the left parties, the CPI and four smaller parties were supporting Telangana but the CPI(M) was opposing it.
As far as the consequences for the other States were concerned, Telangana as the 29th State of India can revive the demand for many other smaller States like Vidarbha in Maharashtra, Haritpradesh in Uttar Pradesh and Gorkhaland in West Bengal. Bigger parties like Mamata Banerjee’s Trinamool Congress and Mulayam Singh Yadav’s SP were unwilling to support Telangana out of these fears.