Of the three regions of Bihar — Mithilanchal, Kosi and Seemanchal which are going to polls on Thursday and may prove determinant — the four districts of Seemanchal involving 24 Assembly seats are Muslim dominated and their voting pattern may be decisive for one or another alliance.
This is the only region in Bihar where parties have attempted to make election triangular as against largely bipolar polls across the State, thanks to the presence of All India Majlis-e-Ittehadul Muslamin (AIMIM) and the Nationalist Congress Party (NCP) which is fighting alone after dissociating from Mulayam Singh Yadav’s Samajwadi Party-led Secular Front. Also in the poll arena is Jana Adhikar Party of Pappu Yadav, the Madhepura MP.
Even though these parties are trying to make a dent in the Muslim votes, gradually it is becoming clear that the contest will be bipolar irrespective of which two parties are the
main contestants. like in Kochadhman constituency in Kishanganj, AIMIM candidate Akhtarul Iman and JD(U)’s Mujahid Alam have emerged as main fighters leaving BJP candidate Abdul Rahman behind.
It would be interesting to watch the mindset of Muslim voters and their polling trend which in previous polls remained divided and their votes divided among a number of Muslim candidates, including Independents. This split in their votes also helped the BJP to snatch the seat on many occasions.
Senior Congress leader and former Minister Dr Khalid Rashid Saba, who belongs to Purnia, said that this time the Muslim have realized the BJP’s threat and closing their ranks behind the Maha gathbandhan. “The Muslims in entire Seemanchal have decided not to split their votes among score of Muslim candidates. They know who likely winners are and who vote-katwa are,” he said, adding that they have united after being affected by their disunity.
Saba said that Muslim in Seemanchal are divided in mainly three sub-castes or identities: Suyapuri, Shershahabadi and Kulhaiya and have been voting as per their preference on the basis of this division. The Congress leader recalled that his father late Abul Ahad Mohammad Noor, who was elected MlA twice and had been Minister in early 50s too faced this problem in Baisi Assembly constituency where Kulhaiya Muslim did not vote him.
Even in last 2010 Assembly election BJP won Baisi seat which has over 69% Muslim voters. Although its candidate polled only 39,939 votes as against 81,410 votes polled by six Muslim candidates. In Amour constituency BJP’s lone Muslim MlA Saba Zafar polled 57,774 votes as against 59,056 votes polled by four other Muslim candidates.
BJP spokesman Azfar Shamsi said Muslims are in majority in most part of Seemanchal but their main problem was extreme poverty, low literacy rate, unemployment and human trafficking and migration. He also accused some parties of not only closing their eyes towards the problem of Bangladeshi infiltration but protecting them for their vote bank politics. “This election is going to be turning point for the Muslims in particular and Bihar in general,” he said claiming that the community would rise above many consideration and vote for the BJP for their welfare.