Will the Rashtriya lok Dal (RlD) emerge to prominence in West UP nicknamed as JatlandIJ Fifteen districts namely Shamli, Muzaffarnagar, Bagpat, Meerut, Ghaziabad, Gautam Buddha Nagar, Hapur, Bulandsahar, Aligarh, Mathura, Hathras, Agra, Ferozabad, Etah and Kasganj are going to polls on February 11.
The poll issues are exodus of Hindus, beef debacle, conversion and local issues related to development and connectivity of roads, trade and business.
In the last Assembly election, the RlD had nine seats in its kitty while the Samajwadi Party had 24, the Bahujan Samaj Party 23, the Bharatiya Janata Party 12 and the Congress 5. The Congress-SP alliance has stitched a poll equation while RlD which was an ally in the previous election is contesting the election all alone this time.
The fielding of contestants of different political parties has made the Assembly election 2017 as a triangular contest in some districts of West UP while a four-cornered fight in some other districts. While the main battle is between the SP-Congress alliance, BSP and the BJP, at about two dozen of seats, RlD’s strong presence (traditional votes) had made the battle four-cornered. This time RlD had fielded contestants at most of seats in West UP. Presently, there is no wave in favour of any political party and all the rival parties are campaigning keeping in their mind to influence ‘floating’ votes while not losing its traditional votes. Barring the BJP, all the contesting parties had kept their eye to woo Jat, Muslim and Yadav voters to upset apple cart of their rival party while gaining a mileage out of the political processing.
In West UP, Jats make up around 17 per cent of the population of western Uttar Pradesh. Out of total population, 72.69 per cent is Hindu and 25.89 per cent is Muslim. Although Hindus are in a large majority, the percentage of Muslims in Western Uttar Pradesh is higher than in Uttar Pradesh as a whole. Out of total Assembly seats in this region, Muslim candidates won 26 seats in the 2012 Assembly elections. The population of Western Uttar Pradesh is composed of a varied set of communities and tribes, including Ahirs, Brahmins, Dalits, Gujjars, Jats, Jatavs, Kurmis, Rajputs, Rohilla Pashtuns, Chamars and Tyagis.
The Jats are the best placed in terms of official connections and literacy. It is because they controlled this “social capital” with their might with people of castes like Gujjars and Sainis, in the neighbourhood, came to them for favours. There is a common myth that if you are in trouble, only a Jat worthy could help you out. The areas like Meerut, Muzaffarnagar and Bijnor belonged to the Jats or Jat dominant.
Party insiders find RlD’s decision to go all alone this time a well-calculated move. They said the RlD leadership harped on family feud in the SP and then on the dissenting SP leaders who did not toe to the party order after being denied ticket and decided to blow the bugle even as an Independent candidate. West UP being a Jatland, the RlD had strongest hold once until the Jat Muslim divide.
The RlD leaders kept hitting out BJP leaders in the past as they calculated that a soft take on BJP may lead it to lose its traditional Jat voters to BJP’s kitty. “The BJP will try to gain mileage by propagating issue like exodus of Hindus, religion conversion and beef issue. This will make the Muslim voters to look for a workable option to defeat the BJP. The RlD had given seats to turncoats of different political parties while calculating their prominence in a particular constituency. If the things work them the RlD will come up cheering at more Assembly seats that it had earlier,” the party sources said.
They said SP MlA Ashish Singh, who is a close confidant of Mulayam Singh Yadav, is contesting from Etah seat on RlD ticket while Mulayam Singh Yadav’ relative Ramveer Singh is contesting from Jasrana Assembly seat of Ferozabad on RlD ticket.
The factor that is going against the RlD is that party is yet not confident that Jats will vote to the party since the Muzaffarnagar riots in 2013. The riot had soured the acrimony between Jat and Muslims and the divide is still very wide. The RlD had faced a major defeat after the Jat Muslim equation was broken causing Chaudhary Ajit Singh to lose Parliament election from Bagpat in 2014 and Jayant Chaudhary from Mathura.
To cobble up the tattered equation that ever ensconced RlD in a formidable position to dictate terms of being an alliance partner in any Government, the RlD leadership had taken several Muslim leaders in party fold and did not show qualm in granting tickets to turncoats of SP, BJP and BSP.
State president RlD Masood Ahmad said SP-Congress alliance was out of fray in the election this year. “The BJP and BSP had a strong contest from RlD and we hope to do fairly well in the election,” he said.
He said demonetisation, anti-farmer policies and late Prime Minister Chaudhary Charan Singh legacy will help RlD in coming with flying colours.