The hung verdicts have been the hallmark of Jammu & Kashmir Assembly elections since 2002 but in 2014 elections, the emergence of BJP as a new potent force has made things complicated.
The verdict is certainly for another coalition set-up in the embattled State of diverse demographic make-up but this time the players are in tough situation to forge a workable alliance. The options in mathematics may be easy to explore but their implications on the ground are equally tough. Therefore, the power players have to walk the razor’s edge.
There is no ambiguity in the decision of people. The Valley has rejected the National Conference and reposed faith in Peoples Democratic Party while in Jammu region, the BJP has wiped out the Congress that had a long history of political hegemony. However, notwithstanding the PDP and BJP’s rise in the respective areas, the Congress and NC have not been completely wiped out from both the regions. Ideally, in a democratic set-up, the verdict of people deserves respect. In that case, the ideal situation is that the PDP must join hands with the BJP to form the next coalition. The verdict is equally against the NC and the Congress and demonstrates the two parties must be kept away from the echelons of power.
But, it would be a tough call for the PDP to align with the BJP because of the diametrically opposite outlook of these parties on the hard political realities about Kashmir issue. The PDP has been harping on the political settlement of Jammu & Kashmir, safeguard of the Article 370, removal of AFSPA and advocates self-rule, a vague solution that involves Pakistan-occupied Kashmir and encompasses dialogue with Pakistan and separatists for the final resolution of Kashmir. The BJP on the contrary, wants complete merged of J&K (including PoK part) with the Union of India. Though with an eye to make inroads into Kashmir politics, the party brushed aside its known stance on Article 370 for the time being, but it never announced to overhaul the stance.
However, the path of development on which all parties claim to have fought the elections, would offer a reason to Mufti to align with the BJP. Mufti knows that ruling J&K without BJP’s partnership would be like facing a double-edged sword. Handling a strong BJP Opposition both at the Center and the State is not an easy option. Perhaps due to this fact, Mufti has showered encomiums on Narendra Modi. The other scenario that can emerge is that Congress offers outside support to PDP. The Congress has already thrown feelers that it is ready to support the PDP to keep the communal forces (read BJP) out of power.
In this scenario, the People’s Conference of Sajjad lone, who won two seats from Kupwara becomes all the more important. lone has indicated that he would be comfortable with anyone to become partner in power. He has already shown his proximity with the BJP. Insiders say that he would not shy away joining PDP-Congress combine, if he gets a remarkable deal.
The NC has not left the race altogether. With 15 seats in its kitty, the party seems to be upbeat because it has upstaged the predictions of the pollsters. Though Omar Abdullah has repeatedly rejected alliance with the BJP, the option is not altogether ruled out. Abdullah has even put the PDP on notice when he said that the party would discuss the option of giving outside support to PDP if he receives a call from Mufti. This option was deemed as impossible as a coalition between the BJP and the Congress at the Centre. Abdullah has actually put the ball in Mufti’s court. Should PDP align with the BJP, he would use it to whip the party in public saying that he had offered the support to keep the “anti-Muslim” party at bay but the PDP chose to go with the wind.
Whatever, the arithmetic takes shape, would be known in next few days. Governor NN Vohra has to face a tough situation in deciding as to whom he invites to form the next Government. While BJP swept Jammu region, PDP virtually decimated the NC all across the valley. What appears to have shaken the NC from beneath its ground is the fall of Chief Minister Omar Abdullah from his family bastion Sonawar. Even as the Chief Minister is putting a brave face making all sorts of noises to reinvent the morale of party workers and cadres but the ground is increasingly becoming marshy for them.
PDP too has its own share of embarrassment. It lost to non-entities in four constituencies - Devsar, Pahalgam, Homeshalibug and Shangus - in its south Kashmir bastion. The stunning defeat of Sartaj Madni, a family veteran of Muftis, at the hands of a low-key Congress man Mohammad Amin Bhat, in Devsar would definitely make PDP to take a call. PDP equally suffered another humiliating defeat in Pahalgam, which Muftis had nurtured as family constituency over the years. It was represented by, both, Mufti Saeed and Mahbooba, in the past. Homeshalibug and Shangus too were considered as PDP strongholds. With 65 per cent turnout, the electorate have not only put the poll-boycott insisting separatists on notice to revisit their stance, it has compelled the mainstream parties not to take the electorate for granted.