BJP’s Vasundhara Raje is riding a wave of popularity in the desert State of Rajasthan prompting a jittery Ashok Gehlot, who already faces a heavy anti-incumbency, to strike behind-the-scenes deals with local leaders to arrest the speed of his probable fall.
Gehlot took last-minute strides in announcing a slew of populist schemes a few months ahead of the Assembly polls, but the presence of rebels in almost every seat is making it difficult for him to catch up with Raje.
Her track record as a Chief Minister provides Raje a cutting edge over Gehlot, whose regime has been mired in several controversies over corruption besides atrocities against minorities, electricity woes, poor state of roads and overall lack of governance.
last time, despite a public mood in her favour, Raje had fallen 18 seats short of Congress’ tally of 96 in the 200-member strong Assembly on account of internal sabotage and indifference of the local RSS unit.
Raje and the BJP’s central leadership have managed to limit the threat of internal sabotage to a large extent this time around and the local RSS unit is also acting in tandem with the former Chief Minister.
However, presence of regional players and “power brokers” in the electoral field — most of whom are being backed by Gehlot and considered as Raje baiters – has left the BJP equally worried.
Known Raje detractors and independent MP from Dausa, Dr Kirori lal Meena, is giving the BJP some jitters yet again with his strong presence in about 20 Assembly constituencies.
Meena who had parted ways with the BJP ahead of the 2008 Assembly elections has fielded candidates in about 150 Assembly constituencies and is expected to win around half a dozen seats. Gehlot is banking heavily on this number to make up for the losses he is expected to suffer.
“We are confident of a majority. We would not require the support of these fringe players to form the Government. People are fed up with the five years of Gehlot rule,” BJP president Rajnath Singh told The Pioneer.
The political battlefield of Rajasthan is also abuzz with speculation about Gehlot’s backing to former JD(U) State president Chandraraj Singhvi to eat into BJP’s support base.
A man having links across party lines and a sought after figure to arrange numbers in time of crisis, Singhvi has propped up strong BJP leaders as rebel candidates in about 35 seats where the margin of victory was less than 4,000 or 5,000 votes.
“Singhvi is not a mass leader but given his clout, he could influence the outcome on these 33 seats,” claims Professor Sanjay lodha, the Dean of PG studies at Mohanlal Sukhadiya University in Udaipur. lodha is a keen watcher of Rajasthan politics and a psephologist.
The presence of Zamindara Party, a group of leaders from the Rajput community, in about half a dozen seats could also play a spoilsport for the BJP. The BJP is considered as the first choice for the Rajput community in the State.