The Congress and the BJP are fighting a prestigious battle in four Assembly constituencies of ladakh where election campaigning ended on Sunday. The four segments — Nubra, leh, Zanaskar and Kargil are going to polls along with 11 other segments in the Kashmir Valley and Jammu in the inaugural part of the five-phased polls on November 25.
Observers say that the People's Democratic Party (PDP) and the National Conference (NC) are posing a tough competition to their opponents in Kargil and Nubra.
The most interesting battle would be witnessed in the leh constituency where BJP's Chering Dorje is directly contesting against Congress candidate Nawang Rigzin Jora, who has held control of the segment for the past 12 years.
Even as both candidates are riding high on their deep-rooted support and personal rapport, the observers say that the candidates' fate would be decided by a difference of few votes. Interestingly, the minority Muslim vote in the region appears to be decisive.
However, unlike in the past Muslim votes are also divided between Shias and Sunnis. The Shias have reportedly resented the Congress party's decision to throw out Abbas Abidi from the Executive Councilor's post and replacing him with Muhammad Shafi lassu who belongs to the Sunni sect.
The BJP candidate Chering Dorje is upright and his tenure as the Chief Executive Councilor of ladakh Autonomous Hill Development Council, when he was a top leader of ladakh Union Territory Front (lUTF), is known for his dedicated contributions. The campaigning by Home Minister Rajnath Singh and a bevy of top BJP leaders has also added to his prospects. The BJP's promise to rename J&K as Jammu-Kashmir and ladakh has also gone down well with the voters who foresee ladakh's prominence in the polity of the embattled State.
"The leh election is fought on the basis of ideology and commitment. Both candidates are very strong and the result will be decided by a few votes," said a senior ladakh expert. However, this time, anti-incumbency, Modi-wave and the fact that BJP won the parliamentary polls, are the factors favouring the BJP candidate.
In Nubra, however, the hexagonal contest is subdued but interesting. The village heads and councilors of the area have decided that they would not open their cards and keep the candidates guessing. Interestingly, every candidate is greeted with aplomb and his speech is heard with interest.
Even as BJP candidate Stanzin Delex and independent candidate Chewang Rigzin, who quit the Congress in protest against denying him mandate, are serious contenders to the incumbent legislator Chatan Namgial, the election result would be interesting as fewer electors exit in this expansive segment. The segment has around 13,300 voters but close to 9,000 electors turn up to polling booths. Namgial is considered as favourite in the constituency for his rapport with the people living in the far-off villages. Observers say that any candidate who has the capacity to bag more than 3,000 votes will emerge as the winner.
All candidates are trying to woo voters from Thang and Tyaksi villages, who have decided to boycott the polls because their demand for upgrading a local school has not been fulfilled by any regime in the past.
Observers say that Muslim votes in the Turtuk region are highly crucial in the constituency. In Kargil, even as Congress candidate Asghar Karbalae is a hot favourite, the PDP made a strong claim to the seat after the Islamia School's leadership and clergy decided to back their candidate Haji Inayat Ali. The fragmentation in the National Conference resulted into fielding a weaker candidate Muhammad Hussain Kacho sidelining veterans like Qamar Ali Akhoon, Feroz Khan, Kacho Ahmad Ali and Hassan Khan.
Interestingly, PDP's newest wave in the constituency has attracted many influential persons like former executive councilor Haji Ghulam Amir and former deputy commissioner Fida Hussain to its fold. The PDP patron Mufti Muhammad Sayeed held an impressive rally in the town.
The BJP is not counted as a factor in Kargil segment though Union Minister of State, Mukhatar Abbas Naqvi campaigned in the town to woo voters on Modi wave. Prime Minister Modi held an impresive rally in the town in August.
Observers say that the actual contest in Kargil would be between Karbalae and Inayat Ali, backed respectively by Imam Khumeini Memorial Trust and Islamia School--two religious bodies representing separate schools of thought of Shia Muslims.
In Zanaskar, however, Congress candidate Ghulam Raza is likely to cruise through amongst the four contesting candidates. Raza threw an impressive show during the parliamentary polls. He lost the election with a wafer-thin margin of 36 votes.
Sources said that NC backed Aga Syed Baqir's vote back is split between Kargil and Zanaskar constituencies and he does not have any sway beyond Suru river. The NC workers in Zanaskar too have not come out openly in Baqir's support.
However, Raza has influence in both Muslim and Buddhist pockets especially in Barsoo nullah area. Top leaders of the Congress including former Chief Minister Ghulam Nabi Azad and former MP T Namgial campaigned for Raza.