As Bihar Chief Minister Nitish Kumar makes the calculated move of quitting the NDA on the issue of Narendra Modi’s growing stature in the BJP, the State politics is agog with speculations about political realignments.
These are centred round the possibility of a triangular contest within the BJP, JD(U) and RJD at a majority of the seats in the 2014 lok Sabha election. It would depend on the Congress’ position on the RJD and JD(U).
Kumar’s snapping 17-year-old ties with the BJP consolidates his position among Muslims - a fact which has left RJD chief lalu Prasad jittery. On the other hand, BJP leaders argue privately on a major electoral advantage when Nitish faces a “Hindu backlash”.
Muslims have not shown great love for Nitish, as the recent bypoll in Maharajganj has proved. A majority preferred RJD’s Prabhunath Singh. After the big split, the Congress — that had more or less made up its mind to go it alone in the elections — is now reconsidering its gameplan. It is very cautiously trying to woo the JD(U), with Prime Minister Manmohan Singh calling Nitish secular and the party supporting him at the time of voting on the confidence motion in the Assembly.
The Congress is left with the option of either joining hands with its old ally or taking its relationship forward with one of the most probable allies. A third direction would lead to a contest on all 40 lok Sabha seats in the State, with focus not so much on improving its tally as on strengthening its organisational structure - a subject dear to Congress vice-president Rahul Gandhi.
When it was suggested to Nitish that his “well-judged” move may not be more than tokenism towards Muslims, the Chief Minister insisted that these exercises have their own importance, as they create the right atmosphere for all communities in the State.
The JD(U) is largely dependent on its support base among Pasmanda Muslims, which comprise a large chunk of total Muslim population in Bihar. Pasmanda Muslim leaders like JD(U) MP Ali Anwar are considered prominent faces.
President of All India Pasmanda Muslim Mahaj, Anwar told The Pioneer that his organisation would hold a national level programme in Patna on July 1. Nitish has already been invited and it is expected he will use the platform in his own style.
With 80 per cent of Muslims being Pasmanda or belonging to lower or backward castes, their voting pattern is definitely going to play a dominant role in the next lok Sabha election.
If one dissects the caste configuration further in Bihar, extremely backward castes (EBCs) - 33 per cent of total State population along with Mahadalits - have received special attention from Nitish. However, it will be difficult at this stage to predict how these marginalised sections will vote.
EBC voters are particularly not adequately strong politically and are generally greatly influenced by the way powerful members of upper castes or other backward castes (OBCs). The JD(U) cannot presume to get the entire chunk of EBC votes, when both upper castes and OBCs - particularly Yadavs - are not very enthusiastic about its performance, said Bihartimes.com editor Ajay Kumar.
Nitish has also to contend with the growing anti-incumbency factor and resentment among contractual teachers over non-regularisation of services. Since BJP is not with the Government anymore, the JD(U) bears full burden of blame for high-level corruption and strong influence of bureaucracy over the Government machinery.
Nonetheless, Nitish Kumar has created a caste-neutral support base among women by taking landmark decisions in their favour. Starting from reserving 50 per cent in panchayati raj institutions, the State Government has now announced 50 per cent seat quota in cooperative bodies and 35 per cent quota in the police. RJD, trying hard to win support of upper caste members, particularly Rajputs, is likely to pin its hopes on the 12 per cent-strong Yadavs but the major challenge before it remains keeping Muslim votes intact and improving its non-Yadav OBC base.
The BJP, on the other hand, will concentrate on wooing Koeri-Kushwaha votes through some sort of alliance with Rashtriya lok Samata Party of Upendra Kushwaha, who rebelled against Nitish. State BJP president Mangal Pandey, though, said it was too early to speculate on such alliances.
A large chunk of upper castes already doubt Government’s intentions for its “overemphasis” on welfare schemes being launched for Mahadalits, Dalits, EBCs, minorities and women belonging to lower castes. The lJP showed generosity when its lone member abstained during the confidence motion in the House.
Thus, it might not be surprising if the Congress can think on lines of forging an alliance with the JD(U), lJP and CPI with an objective to consolidate secular forces when the UPA is very much uncertain about a return to power. By keeping options open, Nitish and the Congress may both be expecting a symbiotic relationship in the future.