Ekla chalo re’ is apparently the current buzzword for every political party, big or small, in Jharkhand — a State known for throwing up fragmented mandates since it was created.
This is despite the fact that no party can genuinely claim to be in a position to get the magic number of 41 in 81-member House for the forthcoming Assembly elections.
While the JVM does not see eye-to-eye with the Congress or, for that matter, the JMM, Shibu Soren’s party has already announced that it will not do any electoral business with the grand old party of India.
Soren’s party felt cheated after the Congress did not form an alternative Government after the BJP-led dispensation was toppled. The JMM had apparently put this condition to seal an alliance for the forthcoming Assembly as well as lok Sabha elections.
Though it has declared its readiness to go it alone, the Congress may still twist the JMM’s arm. After all, the JMM’s first family has the disadvantage of a number of cases pending against it. On the other hand, the Congress is in complete disarray in Jharkhand and would need the JMM’s support to at least stop the split in minority votes.
Soren’s party had fought elections alone in 2009 and bagged 18 seats. Additionally, as a senior BJP leader said, it is believed the Congress can’t fight the elections alone. “It was silently working in coalition with either JVM or JMM,” he added.
JVM’s Babulal Marandi has already snubbed the Congress, having fought the last Assembly elections in alliance and improved its
tally to 14 from nine. Marandi’s confidence is high. Out of power, he has travelled across the State, grooming leaders and cadre for his party. “We are going to achieve the magic number on our own,” he asserted.
The BJP, which used to fight elections in coalition with JD(U), is also set to contest alone as the latter has virtually no significant vote base in Jharkhand.
The AJSU Party may be keen on an alliance with the BJP, but the saffron brigade is apparently not ready to share the number of seats which Sudesh Mahto’s party will demand to contest. “AJSU has limited presence and yet Sudesh might be a hard bargainer. For example, he will demand to spare Hazaribagh seats in the lok Sabha election, which will be impossible for us,” pointed out a senior BJP leader.
However, unlike the JMM’s maverick leaders, Sudesh is a cool player and predictable too — thus suitable for a post-poll tie-up.
“The BJP has limited options to form a pre-poll coalition. It can neither tie up with the JMM nor JVM,” pointed out senior BJP leader Saryu Roy, who has been assigned the task of drawing up a strategy for the next elections by the leadership. “But BJP has a network across the State. All we need is to galvanise workers to face the electoral battle,” he added.
The reason for all these parties’ ekla chalo mantra is not far to seek.
“No party wants to spare space for others. Moreover, in a fragmented mandate, parties are free to play politics of convenience, post-poll. They can manoeuvre and sew up alliance with the party it fought against and form a Government,” pointed out regional director of Institute for Human Development Harishwar Dayal. For example, the BJP forged alliance with JMM after 2009 elections, though both have been bitter political rivals.
“Moreover, vote share of a party may not necessarily improve if it fights elections in alliance. It may slip too. It is not necessary that vote share of the BJP will improve if it ties up with JMM. There is never a perfect loyalty to a particular party,” Dayal added.
likewise, AJSU may not have reservations on joining the Government, no matter which coalition - Congress-led or BJP-led - forms it.
Over-ambition on part of leaders of regional parties also stops them from sharing seats. Marandi, for instance, fears he may have to play second fiddle to the Congress if he talks of pre-poll tie and in that scenario, he can never get the Chief Minister’s chair.
SlICE OF THE PIE
Vote share in past Assembly elections (in percentage)
Parties 2009 2005
BJP 20.18 23.57
Congress 16.16 12.05
JMM 15.20 14.29
JVM 8.99 ----
AJSU 5.12 2.81