When other BJP candidates are riding high on Modi wave and its separation from the JD(U), for BJP’s lone Muslim MP Shahnawaz Hussain it has got awfully difficult to retain his seat in the communally sensitive Bhagalpur Parliamentary constituency. Hussain has to huff and puff to ensure his victory from Bhagalpur as he seems to be badly caught up in the whirlwind of local politics based largely on religion and caste.
During the last lok Sabha polls in 2009 and bypoll of 2006 Shahnawaz Hussain managed to win with the strong backing of Nitish Kumar, for whom the Muslims and his castemen (Kurmi-Koeri), along with EBC and upper caste votes in bulk. And, also there was no NaMo factor which has now polarised the minority community across the country.
Bhagalpur, however, appears to be ready to throw rather surprising poll results this time, yet Hussain is pulling all the strings hoping to score votes from his community. The BJP candidate has also been declaring that with Modi Government at the Centre, he will certainly be a Minister.
Earlier, local BJP MlA Ashwani Kumar Choubey in the wake of NaMo wave had declared that Hussain needs to be fielded from a Muslim-dominated constituency like Kishanganj to get electoral benefit of polarised votes but Choubey was shifted to Buxar to contest and Hussain remained here in Bhagalpur. locals say Choubey’s supporters too are not rallying behind Hussain to ensure his victory.
BJP’s prime ministerial candidate Narendra Modi too had addressed a public rally in Bhagalpur recently, but according to locals, it turned out to be rather unimpressive which relayed the strong political message to the BJP candidate, whose name recently popped up when a State BJP leader announced him as the party’s future State Chief Minister.
“Ever since he won the last lok Sabha polls in 2009, he became a high-flying top party leader but gradually lost connection with the local issues and people,” rued Navlesh Kumar and Samarjit Shah in Bhagalpur. Hussain is, however, facing a tough electoral battle from RJD candidate Bulo Mandal alias Shailesh Kumar Mandal and JD(U)’s candidate Abu Kaiser.
Kaiser’s presence in the ring has brought great relief to the RJD candidate as he is likely to split Muslim votes. Mandal belongs to Gangota, an extremely backward caste, whose sizeable fate. It was the full support of Gangotas which had helped Hussain’s victory in 2009 but, interestingly, this time this militant caste of riverine belts is all poised to act as the real catalyst for Hussain’s doom.
The Gangotas, named after their presence in riverine areas, especially of Gopalpur and Bihpur Assembly constituencies have traditionally been against the Yadav caste but this time they have co-opted with the Yadavs to ensure victory of RJD candidate. The Yadavs in the area have been at loggerhead with Gangotas as they are accused to have usurped their land.
“However, their support for Yadavs this time with a section of Muslims, could spell trouble for BJP’s star face Shahnawaz Hussain,” said Ranjan Mandal of Gopalpur. The Yadavs have always been there for their leader, lalu Prasad, while saying that “come what may our vote is for lalu Prasad only”. Bhagalpur lok Sabha constituency has also over three lakh Muslim voters.
“This time, Hussain’s victory means supporting Narendra Modi and we do not want to commit such a blunder,” said Rahmat Ali of Muslim-dominated Nathnagar locality. Nathnagar Muslims, though, have high praise for Nitish Kumar and they regret that they would not be voting for him in the lok Sabha poll. “But, in State Assembly we’ll make sure of Kumar’s victory,” said another local Mohd Ali Ashraf.
But, why can’t they vote for the candidate of their own community Shahnawaz HussainIJ “How can we forget 2002 Gujarat riots and even if we have to vote for someone from our community we’d go for JD(U) candidate Abu Kaiser but not Hussain,” said Mohammed Iqbal of Sabour throwing strong hint that 2014 polls would not be a cakewalk for Shahnawaz.
While braving the summer winds and simmering heat, Hussain has to campaign hard these days in the interiors of the constituencies to impress the voters. “You can even read from his face that he is not sure of his victory this time...even in the last elections he won with just 52,000 votes,” reminded Bimlesh Chandra at Pirpainty.
“The upper caste and Banias will support the BJP, Gangotas and Yadavs are supporting the RJD while Kurmi and Koeri vote along with Mahadalits and a large portion of EBC would go to the JD(U) candidate,” explained Sashi Ranjan, a local journalist. He also said that most of the Muslim votes this time would go against the BJP and a very few would votes for Abu Kaiser, JD(U) candidate.