The northeast monsoon’s onset is likely from Tuesday. The northeast monsoon that spans from October to December is a major rainfall period for Southern Peninsula, particularly eastern half of the region. Tamil Nadu, Kerala, south interior Karnataka, Rayalaseema and coastal Andhra Pradesh are the main beneficiaries.
Officials said that northeast monsoon season makes an appearance after southwest monsoon bids adieu to the country and southwest monsoon may retreat any time in the country. Usually, Northeast Monsoon arrives during the third week of October. “Retreat of Southwest Monsoon from the country is linked with change in weather conditions in most parts of the country. Central and western parts of the country go quite weather-wise and come under the ambit of the hot weather conditions,” officials added.
According to Skymet Weather, weather conditions are getting favorable with each passing day. Thus, chances are bright that the three-month long post-Monsoon season would be making an onset well before its official time this year. “While Kerala and South Interior Karnataka record around 20 percent of its annual rainfall during the season, rest of the sub-divisions witness around 50 percent of its annual rainfall, with parts of coastal Tamil Nadu even recording 70 percent of rainfall,” it said.
In the last few years, there have been varied rain amounts in the northeast monsoon season with 2017 witnessing 86 percent of rains, 2016 seeing very little rains at a mere 35 percent, 2015 recorded a whopping 132 percent of rainfall, rains were at 88 percent in 2014, 86 percent in 2013, 93 percent in 2012, 96 percent in 2011 and a massive 154 percent in 2010.
In contrast to the Southwest Monsoon which sees more rains in La Nina and lesser in El Nino, rainfall activity during the northeast monsoon season is higher during the El Nino and very less in La Nina.
According to IMD, the deep depression over the East-Central and adjoining South-East Arabian Sea has intensified into cyclonic storm ‘Luban’ located to 1,260 km West-North-West of Minicoy (Lakshadweep) and it is expected to further intensify as a severe cyclonic storm. Meanwhile, the Bay of Bengal is also witnessed development of ‘well-marked’ low-pressure area over South-East and adjoining East-Central basin getting into the act.
According to the IMD, the well-marked ‘low’ may concentrate into a depression during by this evening and start moving in a north-west direction towards Odisha coast. The IMD has also forecast that ideal conditions developing in the Bay would culminate in the setting of the North-East monsoon rain along the Tamil Nadu and Andhra Pradesh coasts from today.