The South-West monsoon this year is already 30 per cent above average, during the first fortnight covering almost the entire country ahead of schedule. It will, however, decrease its activity in the Northern region in the next 48 hours with focus shifting to the East and the North-East.
According to India Meteorological Department (IMD), there will be a lull in the rainfall activity in the northwest region between June 20 and 24.
According to figures from the IMD, the country as a whole has already received about 68 mm of rain from June 1 to June 18. The IMD has predicted that the overall rains during the current monsoon season would be normal at 98 per cent for the country and that it would be well distributed across the nation.
The surplus monsoon according to experts from IMD is very well spread. As of now 91 per cent of the geographical area of the country has received either normal or excess which is a very positive sign,” they pointed out.
In sharp contrast to the monsoons last year, which was the worst in the past 65 years, was 20 per cent below normal till July last year. Northwest India had faced the maximum deficit of 39 per cent, followed by South Peninsula 22 percent, Central India 20 per cent and East and Northeast India 10 per cent respectively.
In sharp contrast, the rains this year in Central India is already 109 per cent above normal, while the monsoon in North-west is already up by 50 per cent above long Period Average (lPA). The South Peninsula, on the other hand, has also begun well with above 59 per cent average.
The situation in Uttarakhand is likely to improve within the next 24 hours, predicted the sources. The system is expected to move progressively towards east thereby causing successive rains in the region. The experts have forecast that the rains will pick up in the north-eastern States from June 20. Rains there is presently below 47 per cent below normal.
The sources in IMD further pointed out that the monsoon usually travels in stages in the country. After a system covers central India, there is usually a lull in the rains following which another system takes it forward to north and northwest India in two to three weeks. However, this time, a single system moved rapidly right up to the northwest and covered the entire country one month in advance.
The forecast for the next few days has predicted fairly widespread to widespread rainfall over Andaman & Nicobar Islands, West Coast, Central and Northwest India, interior Maharashtra, Gujarat, northwest India and Northeastern States.
The conditions are favourable for further advance of southwest monsoon into more parts of Rajasthan; remaining parts of Madhya Pradesh, Jharkhand West Bengal, Sikkim besides some parts of Bihar and Uttar Pradesh during next 48 hours.