Even when the south-west monsoon is yet to retreat from the country, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) has already predicted that the north-east monsoon active over south peninsula from October-December too is likely to be higher than average.
The south peninsula consisting of five subdivisions of Tamil Nadu, Coastal Andhra Pradesh, Rayalaseema, Kerala and south interior Karnataka receives about 30 per cent of its annual rainfall during the NE monsoon season. Tamil Nadu, in particular, receives about 48 per cent of its annual rainfall during this season.
As per the IMD forecast for the 2013 NE monsoon, rainfall over south peninsula may be over 100 per cent of average, while Tamil Nadu may receive up to 112-114 per cent of its normal rains.
As per the figures of IMD, the long period average (lPA) of the NE monsoon rains over south peninsula is 332.1mm, while the same for Tamil Nadu is 438.2mm. The region has already received 825.6 mm of rain from south-west monsoons which is 15 per cent above average.
There is still little respite from south-west monsoon too even during the first week of October. According to weather experts, the low pressure activities over Odisha and neighbourhood would move west and northwestwards during the next three days. It may then recurve and move in north-east direction thereafter. The cyclonic circulation over Gujarat and neighbourhood may merge with above system on October4-5.
According to predictions of IMD, rain/thundershowers would occur at many places over Central India and adjoining areas on many day of the week and over Odisha, West Bengal and north Andhra Pradesh during next 48 hours. There would also be increase in rainfall over Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, Jharkhand during the second half of the week. The country as a whole has received 936.7 mm which is six per cent above average this season.