The BJP-JD(U) split will eventually lead to the recasting of political and social structure which has witnessed only cosmetic changes from “bitter caste truth” of Bihar during more than seven-year NDA rule.
The State, which was more watched for its development agenda under the leadership of Chief Minister Nitish Kumar all these years, is likely to enter into the phase of political uncertainty leading to social tensions in the process.
Though Nitish Kumar took his calculated risk to woo Muslim voters and strengthen his secular image to counter his bête noire lalu Prasad, it is yet to be seen how much he will be able to expand his support base among members of the minority community.
lalu still holds a huge popularity among members of the minority community despite the fact that he lost the power to the NDA way back in 2005 itself and he has not much to offer. His Muslim Yadav (MY) support base is still largely intact at the grass-root level despite the fact that Nitish has also been successful to wean away a good chunk of the Muslims through the State Government’spro-minority pogrammes.
The BJP rarely created any hue and cry over Nitish’s conscious attempts to strengthen his base among nearly 17 per cent Muslim population and the State Government managed to maintain its “secular character” during nearly eight-year rule of BJP-JD(U) in the State.
Despite all his best attempts, Nitish always faced the challenge of “trust deficit” among certain sections of Muslims, particularly those having strong allegiance with lalu Prasad.
Sources claim that Nitish Kumar now considers that his extreme step of dissociating his party from the NDA will yield very rich dividends at a time when Gujarat Chief Minister Narendra Modi is riding fast on the trajectory of the Hindutva
Nitish’s deep rooted aversion for Narendra Modi, which only grew after 2010 when Modi started pushing himself on the centrestage of the national politics, is not new phenomenon as NaMo was denied to campaign either in lok Sabha election or State Assembly election since 2005.
Though Narendra Modi himself did not show any sign of anguish when he did not campaign either in the 2004 lok Sabha election or the 2005 State Assembly election but Nitish’s strong opposition to his campaigning in subsequent elections did really hurt sentiments of Narendra Modi, sources claimed.
The relationship between BJP and JD(U), however, touched a new low when Nitish cancelled a dinner for the top brass of the BJP to register his protest with the party for an advertisement featuring him with Narendra Modi and another on Gujarat’s aid to Bihar during the devastating floods in the Kosi region of the State in 2008. It is widely acknowledged that Nitish Kumar cancelled the dinner for the senior BJP leaders when he was informed that Narendra Modi was also in Patna for the party national executive meeting.
If it was not enough, Nitish Kumar also returned flood relief materials, given by Gujarat for the benefit of flood-hit people of Kosi region in Bihar. There was virtually no entry for Narendra Modi in Bihar and he could not campaign in the 2010 State Assembly election in which the NDA returned to the power with a thumping majority.
Earlier in 2009, Narendra Modi was not able to campaign in Bihar too though the NDA was victorious in 32 out of total 40 lok Sabha seats.
But Nitish Kumar’s intentions became clearer when he set a pre-condition for the BJP to consider only such a person, who has impeccable secular credentials, as the Prime Ministerial candidate for the 2014 lok Sabha election.
The JD(U)’s national council meeting in New Delhi also gave more than sufficient hints that Nitish Kumar will not accept Narendra Modi as the PM nominee at any stage.
So, it was clear since long that Nitish Kumar was not comfortable with the BJP, particularly on the issue of steep growth of Narendra Modi in his party.
Nitish Kumar was finding an opportune time to snap his party’s ties with the BJP and took a cue from the BJP National Executive meeting in Goa for executing his long pending plan, reportedly disturbed over the way BJP president Rajnath Singh projected Modi in the party meet.
Though after the anointment of Narendra Modi as the chief of the BJP campaign panel, Nitish Kumar described elevation of Modi in his party as an internal matter, he changed his tack later, an act which was widely perceived as sudden and afterthought.
In the middle of the political hullabaloo, one should also not forget that he has played his ‘special status” card very smartly, almost snatching opportunities from other political parties to project themselves as great votaries for special category to Bihar.
Nitish Kumar, known for his political sophistry, has already claimed last year itself that his party will extend its support to any party or alliance if it grants special category status to Bihar once it comes to the power after the election in 2014.
His support to the proposed Federal Front of Mamata Banerjee has made the entire political scenario hazier.
Speculation is also rife that both JD(U) and RJD will not find it very inappropriate to support the UPA from outside in the Government formation exercise in the post-poll situation.
But the moot question will remain unanswered for some time to gauge the reaction of Muslims to Nitish Kumar’s latest political game plan.
The BJP firebrand leaders like party vice-president CP Thakur and Giriraj Singh will become more offensive in their attack against Nitish Kumar and are also supposed to create doubts about his secular credentials among Muslims by raking up the issue of his alleged inaction following the Godhra train burning incident.
“It would not surprise me if Nitish Kumar is ridiculed both by the RJD and the BJP for his unconvincing record on secularism,” remarked a senior JD(U) leader on the condition of anonymity.
BJP MP Kirti Azad told The Pioneer that one should verify statements of Nitish Kumar oneself to reach a conclusion on the inconsistent stand of the Bihar Chief Minister on Narendra Modi. He said that people will not buy his any theory on secularism any more.