In a sharply polarised political scenario in the seven constituencies of Mithilanchal and Kosi region going to polls on Wednesday, it appears to be a make-or-break situation for both the poster boys of the BJP and the RJD. The fourth phase poll in Bihar could decide which way the NaMo wave or the lalu’s revival magic would be swinging.
The seven constituencies — Madhepura, Madhubani, Darbhanga, Jhanjharpur, Samastipur, Begusarai and Khagaria are primarily dominated by the Muslims, Yadavs, Upper caste Brahmins and EBCs, but in the post NaMo wave, the voters have been sharply polarised either for NaMo or against NaMo. In this complete polarisation, Nitish Kumar’s development plank has visibly gone diminished and his party candidates are seen nowhere in the direct race.
On all the seven seats, though, Kumar’s JD(U) had won five and the BJP two seats in the 2009 lok Sabha polls, when both the parties had contested the poll jointly. But with both snapping ties with each other now, the political profile of these constituencies have completely changed with Kumar struggling hard to retain even one seat for his party president Sharad Yadav in Madhepura.
The Bihar Chief Minister even had camped for 10 days in Madhepura to ensure victory for Sharad Yadav, but even his presence in the Yadav bastion has apparently gone against
his candidate.
“Ever since the Kosi deluge and its relief and rehabilitation exercise, there is a strong anti-Nitish feeling among the Yadavs of Madhepura. When he camped here, the Yadavs of the constituency too have galvanised vengefully to ensure defeat of his party candidate,” declared Anil Kishore Yadav of Murliganj.
In Madhepura, it’s Pappu Yadav wave reeling in the constituency across the caste line. lalu-led RJD could count Madhepura as a safe seat in its pocket even before the poll and it’s only because of local popularity of the heavyweight Pappu Yadav, who recently was acquitted from Patna High Court in connection with the murder case of CPM leader Ajit Sarkar. Instead of the BJP’s shoutline, Madhepura is reeling with har har Pappu, ghar, ghar Pappu.
BJP candidate Vijay Kumar Kushwaha, like other party candidates in six other constituencies, is banking heavily on NaMo wave to win the race.
Similarly, in Brahmin dominated Darbhanga and Madhubani constituencies, their is a straight contest between the BJP and the RJD candidates. The Muslims along with Yadavs in sizeable number in both the constituencies are found to be completely polarised in favour of the RJD candidates in order to stall Modi from coming to power.
The Yadavs remain loyal to lalu Prasad despite BJP’s consistent effort to make a dent into the caste. The RJD has put Muslim candidates MAA Fatmi and Abdul Bari Siddiqui from Darbhanga and Madhubani seats respectively, whereas the BJP has fielded both the sitting MPs Kirti Jha Azad and Hukumdeo Narayan Yadav to challenge the formidable RJD candidates.
The support from the upper caste for the BJP is appearing to be comfortable in Begusarai constituency, from where the party has fielded Bhola Singh against RJD candidate Tanvir Hassan and JD(U) backed CPI nominee Rajendra Prasad Singh. Once a left stronghold and Bhumihar dominated constituency, today NaMo wind is blowing strong against the rival candidates with the possible split in Muslim votes between the RJD and JD(U) supported CPI cadre.
However, in the neighboring Khagaria constituency, RJD candidate Krishna Yadav is appearing to be on stronger wicket. Krishna Yadav is second wife of local heavyweight Ranvir Yadav, whose first wife Punam Devi was JD(U) MlA but later she was suspended from the party for campaigning in support of her sister. The JD(U) has fielded sitting MP Dinesh Chandra Yadav and the BJP backed lJP has put former State Congress chief Chaudhary Mehboob Ali Kaiser to cross swords with his rivals.
In Samastipur, the Congress may expect something positive as the party candidate Ashok Ram is giving tough fight to the BJP supported lJP candidate Ramchandra Paswan.
However, Jhanjharpur is among the very few constituencies of Bihar where the ruling JD(U) could bag a seat in its fold. The party candidate Devendra Prasad Yadav, who recently had joined the party to contest the poll is looking on a strong footing against his rivals Mangani lal Mandal of the RJD and Birendra Chaudhury of the NJP. The contest is between the old socialist guards of Bihar politics Devendra Yadav and Mangani lal Mandal with a visible edge to the JD(U) candidate.
Some of the AAP candidates too have thrown their ring in the fourth phase polls. The famous NRI doctor Prabhat Ranjan Das is in the ring from Darbhanga, while Neeraj Thakur is in Madhubani and Tulia Devi is contesting from Jhanjharpur. Though, they hold good respect among the voters, but they have failed to make any electoral presence in their respective constituencies.
A total of 59,000 personnel of Central Paramilitary forces and State police as well as two helicopters have been deployed to keep vigil during the elections in these seven constituencies.
“A total of 145 companies of Central Paramilitary forces, which include 35 companies of the Border Security Force (BSF), 34 companies of the Central Reserve Police Force (CRPF), 74 companies of the Bihar Minority Police (BMP) and 8,986 home guards will be deployed for the seven seats,” said chief secretary AK Sinha. Two helicopters will also be used for air surveillance, he added further.
Besides, in riverine areas, boats, motorised boats, mounted police and motorcycles have been deployed to conduct smooth, free, fair and peaceful polls,” said Sinha.