The rising popularity of BJP-led NDA’s prime ministerial candidate Narendra Modi and the surge in the popularity of the Aam Aadmi Party are giving nightmares to Kerala’s Congress-led ruling UDF and CPI(M)-led Opposition lDF alike as they are starting preparations for the crucial lok Sabha elections.
Poll strategists in both the UDF and lDF now secretly admit that the general election in Kerala this time need not be a direct one-to-one fight between the two fronts as it has been happening for the past several decades as the BJP is gaining strength in several areas and the AAP becoming more and more popular as the days go by.
Both the Congress and the CPI(M) had expected the challenge to be bigger to some extent from the BJP after the entry of Modi into the polls scene as that party’s man for the top Governmental post but they had never expected the AAP to pose any threat to the ‘custom’ of elections becoming a choice for the people between the two fronts.
The UDF and lDF still believe that the BJP or the AAP will not be able to win a lok Sabha seat from Kerala but they are concerned that the presence of candidates of these parties in a big way could lead to stunning reversals of expectations in certain key constituencies, upsetting the calculations they have made up.
The BJP has not so far made any claims on the possibility of it ‘opening account’ in Kerala but it does believe that the presence of Modi in the electoral scene as the PM candidate can ‘work wonders’ for the party. BJP leaders say that the picture will be clearer after Modi attends a rally in Thiruvananthapuram and speaks at a public programme in Kochi on February 9.
At least one influential Hindu community organisation has already aired open support for Modi and the BJP while several minority community outfits have extolled his image as a pro-development ruler. There are speculations that certain minority community-based parties which are presently allies of the Congress may offer silent support to the BJP after the Modi visit.
The BJP will be fielding candidates in all the 20 lok Sabha seats in Kerala but the main focus will be on the Thiruvananthapuram constituency where party candidate O Rajagopal had bagged 2,28,952 votes to claim third position when the CPI’s winner had got only 2,86,000 votes in 2004. The BJP sincerely believes that the picture can change in the context of the Modi wave.
“Most in the CPI(M) still do not believe that Modi can influence the Kerala voters in a big way but everyone knows that this is not entirely true,” admitted a CPI(M) poll strategist. “Modi is going to be a determining factor. The BJP may not get any seat this time also but it will play a more decisive role compared to the past elections,” he added.
However, AAP still remains the unpredictable element in Kerala as far as the lok Sabha election is concerned. Political analysts are not yet ready to predict the AAP’s performance level at the polls but leaders of both the Congress and the CPI(M) admit that it can be a spoiler of the game and “a nasty one at that” (as the CPI(M) strategist said).
Observers say that AAP can be decisive in the urban constituencies like Thiruvananthapuram and Ernakulam where signs of its increasing popularity are already visible. The AAP is yet to decide its programmes for the lok Sabha polls in Kerala but it will have candidates in at least Thiruvananthapuram, Ernakulam and Thrissur constituencies.