Though there is a delay of a week in the onset of Monsoon in Kerala, the overall rainfall in the country will be above normal, said the India Meteorological Department (IMD) in its second stage forecast on Thursday. The national monsoon forecaster said there is zero per cent probability of deficient monsoon this year.
Releasing the second long-range forecast, IMD Director General laxman Singh Rathore, stated, “Expect monsoon rains to hit Kerala in 4-5 days, which will hence proceed further over Bay of Bengal in next 48 hours.”
As per the IMD region wise figures , Central and South Peninsula will receive the highest rainfall of 113 per cent of long Period Approach (lPA), followed by 108 per cent of normal in North-West India. The North-East on the other hand will receive 94 per cent of lPA, all with a model error of plus-minus 8 per cent.
According to the weather scientists, El Nino conditions have turned neutral and moving into negative zone. There is 50 per cent chance of la Nina taking over during monsoon.
In this situation, quantitatively, the monsoon seasonal rainfall is likely to be 106 per cent of the long Period Average (lPA) with a model error of plus-minus 5 per cent. The monthly rainfall over the country as whole is likely to be 107 per cent of its lPA during July and 104 per cent of lPA during August both with a model error of plus-minus 9 per cent. There are 96 per cent chances of normal-to-excess rainfall from June to September.
Meanwhile, IMD has further predicted that heavy rain and thunderstorms were likely over Himachal Pradesh, Uttarakhand, Bihar, Jharkhand, West Bengal, North-East and coastal Andhra Pradesh during the next couple of days.