Even as the South-West monsoon has been predicted to be below normal this year by the India Meteorological Department (IMD), due to El Nino effect, weather scientists have, however, said monsoon is expected to hit Andamans by this weekend, earlier than the normal date of May 20.
But on the other hand, with pre-monsoon showers having hit Kerala and parts of Tamil Nadu, apprehensions are being raised on whether it will eventually weaken the monsoon in the region.The southwest monsoon begins its advent from the southern States of the country. It hits Bay of Bengal and parts of Andamans usually during the last week of May, from there it advances to southern India.
According to official sources in IMD, the present weather conditions indicate of a favourable situation for the advancement of monsoon. The monsoon hits South Andamans and Bay of Bengal around May 20, but in view of the present conditions, it is likely to arrive at these places by May 17. IMD officials have been keeping close watch on the advancement of the monsoon from May 10.The sources further said that the advancement of monsoon is predicted on the basis of monitoring of various climatic conditions including direction of the wind and its speed, the size of clouds, their height and intermittent rains.
However, some parts of Kerala and Tamil Nadu are experiencing heavy downpours accompanied by thunder since the past two-three days. According to the weather experts, the area of low pressure in the Bay of Bengal is getting intense and threatens to develop into a tropical storm over the next few days.
Heavy showers are forecast to continue across the area until the beginning of next week. This according to sources increases chances of further flooding and mudslides. Though the pre-monsoon showers have brought respite from the summer heat, it remains to be seen if it affects the monsoonal rains which usually arrive on the South coast of Kerala around June 1 and cover the whole country by mid-July.
The IMD had last month stated that rainfall is expected to be 95 per cent of the long-term average with El Nino climatic conditions threatening to take toll on the rains this year. The country had last faced a drought like situation in 2009, with below average rains, which was preceded in 2004 and 2002. Each time El Nino was the reason.