The southwest monsoon has picked up and is set to cover half the country within the next 48 hours. According to Indian Meteorological Department (IMD), the deficit in rainfall has improved from 49% to 42% in the last week up to June 20.
In the process of bringing more accuracy to its forecast IMD is working on full integration of the advanced dynamical model of weather forecast into its system.According to the sources, conditions are favourable for the southwest monsoon to continue into parts of Karnataka and Uttar Pradesh. They are also likely to enter into further areas of Madhya Pradesh and Maharashtra, during the next two days.
The weather experts, however, said, though rainfall has increased in some parts of the central region, overall the monsoon has continued to be weak. They, however, expected the monsoon to strengthen in Central and South eastern parts of the country next week. Rains will also pick up in North-East and Eastern India.
In contrast, not much relief has been predicted in the northern part of the country. According to the sources in IMD, though it is not likely to get rain in the coming days, there is likely to be a drop in maximum temperature, which will bring some respite from its present heat wave.
The IMD’s forecast is presently based on the dynamical as well as the existing statistical model for providing long-term monsoon rain forecast, which it has been using since 2012.According to experts, the department is working to upgrade to only the dynamical model for long as well as short range forecast during the next two-three years. According to them, the statistical model needs to be replaced as it is proven to lack consistency and reliability.
They pointed out that the data generated in Statistical model forecast is largely based on information received from agencies in the US, Europe and Australia. Dynamical model of prediction on the other hand involves mathematical simulation of the atmosphere on a computer, which requires skilled manpower.
The sources pointed out that the dynamical model of prediction is in experimentation stage and has been found to give much accurate results.While the statistical model had last year predicted monsoon rains to be 98% of the long period average (lPA), the dynamical model predicted the monsoon rains to be 106% of lPA, which was was right on target. The IMD is presently building its capacities for operationalising the new model.