The rains, which came in heavily at the start of the season in June but slowed down to below average last week, is expected to surge from 19-24 July in northern and western regions. Nearly 86 per cent area of the country has received normal/excess rainfall, so far.
Heavy rains have been predicted next week by the sources in the IMD and warnings given out in this regard over Himachal Pradesh and Uttarakhand during the first half of the week. Weather experts have also predicted rains in Delhi besides parts of Western Uttar Pradesh, Haryana among other States during the first half of the week.
The above phenomenon was explained by the experts as being the interaction of monsoon easterlies from the Bay of Bengal with opposing winds brought in by the western disturbance from Arabian Sea to set off rains over northwest and adjoining central India.
Weather experts, however, pointed out that north India traditionally receives low rain The region saw poor rain last year, but the surge in rain next week might not be able to fill the gap created by a deficient monsoon.
It predicted that such weakness in North India is likely to persist throughout August and may even extend up to September.
However, interesting observations may be seen in parts of interior peninsula (Andhra Pradesh, Karnataka, Tamil Nadu, and even Maharashtra) which might witness relatively low rain even as it pours down heavily in the areas around their vicinity.
The country has so far received 367.8 mm rainfall during the past seven weeks as a whole which is 16 per cent above the long period average (lPA). The cumulative seasonal rainfall activity continued to be excess over the major regions.
Central Indian region received the highest with 477.5 mm of rain which is 41 per cent above average. However east & northeastern states continued to be deficient with 35 per cent below lPA. The rains over the northeast region and West Bengal have been deficient so far this year and may continue to be weak. As per figures from IMD, the rains this week have just been normal at 66.6 mm.