The India Meteorological Department (IMD) on Sunday predicts further three-four days delay in the arrival of southwest monsoon in Kerala. IMD had predicted the southwest monsoon to hit the coasts of Kerala by June 4. According to IMD, the southwest monsoon had reached the west side of Lakshadweep on June 3 but it did not have favorable conditions to move further from there.
The southwest monsoon normally sets in over Kerala on June 1 with a standard deviation of about seven days.
In a statement on Sunday, the IMD said, "Conditions (are) becoming favourable with the increase in westerly winds over the south Arabian Sea. Also, the depth of westerly winds is gradually increasing and today, June 4, the depth of westerlies has reached up to 2.1 kilometres above the mean sea level.
"The cloud mass over the southeast Arabian sea is also increasing. We expect that these favourable conditions for monsoon onset over Kerala will further improve during the next three-four days. It is being monitored continuously and further updates will be provided tomorrow (Monday)."
Scientists, however, said the delay is unlikely to impact kharif sowing and total rainfall over the country.
The southeast monsoon arrived in the southern state on May 29 last year, June 3 in 2021, June 1 in 2020, June 8 in 2019 and May 29 in 2018.
India is expected to get normal rainfall during the southwest monsoon season despite the evolving El Nino conditions, the IMD had earlier said.
Northwest India is expected to see normal to below normal rainfall.
East and northeast, central, and south peninsula are expected to receive normal rainfall at 94-106 per cent of the long-period average of 87 centimetres.
According to the IMD, rainfall between 96 and 104 per cent of a 50-year average of 87 cm is considered 'normal'.
Rainfall less than 90 per cent of the long-period average is considered 'deficient', between 90 per cent and 95 per cent is 'below normal', between 105 per cent and 110 per cent is 'above normal' and more than 100 per cent is 'excess' precipitation.