The four-month monsoon season has ended with India receiving "normal" rainfall -- 820 mm against a long-period average of 868.6 mm, a deficit of 48.6 mm amounting to 6 percent. The India Meteorological Department (IMD) Director General Mrutyunjay Mohapatra on Saturday said with positive factors countering the effect of El Nino, the 2023 monsoon ended with 94.4 per cent cumulative rainfall, which is considered "normal".
The southwest monsoon has been a story of swings, and as the months progressed, the variations only became more intense: 9 percent deficit in June, excess by 13 percent in July, deficit again by 36 in August while 13 percent access rain recorded in September due to multiple low pressure systems. August 2023 marked the driest month since 1901 and the hottest ever recorded in India, attributed to the strengthening of El Nino conditions. In August, there were 20 break monsoon days, compared to 16 such days in 2005, which held the previous record for the spells when the monsoon is extremely weak. That month was also marked by large-scale rain-triggered devastation in Himachal Pradesh and Uttarakhand, even as much of the country remained parched.
Of the 717 meteorological districts, 220 have received rain deficit while 493 recorded normal rainfall and above this year. Bihar, Gangetic West Bengal, Jharkhand, Arunachal Pradesh, Sikkim, Kerala, East Uttar Pradesh, Mahe, South Karnataka and Lakshadweep among the states which received less monsoon rain this year. The monsoon is critical for India’s economy, where 51% of India’s farmed area — accounting for 40% of production — is irrigated by rain. As many as 47% of the country’s population is dependent on agriculture for livelihood, making such inconsistency a challenge not just for farmers who need to time their sowing and harvesting right, but also the larger economy.
Mohapatra said with positive factors countering the effect of El Nino, the 2023 monsoon ended with 94.4 per cent cumulative rainfall, which is considered "normal".
"Out of the 36 meteorological subdivisions, three (constituting 9 per cent of the total area) received excess rainfall, 26 received normal rainfall (covering 73 per cent of the total area), and seven received deficient rainfall. The seven subdivisions with deficient rainfall are Nagaland, Manipur, Mizoram, and Tripura, Gangetic West Bengal, Jharkhand, Bihar, East UP, South Interior Karnataka, and Kerala," the IMD chief said. The IMD reported that East and Northeast India recorded 1,115 mm of rainfall against a normal of 1,367.3 mm, which translates to an 18 per cent deficit. Northwest India recorded 593 mm of rainfall compared to a long-period average of 587.6 mm. Central India, where agriculture predominantly relies on monsoon rains, recorded 981.7 mm against a normal of 978 mm. The South Peninsula experienced an eight per cent deficit.
As per the IMD, rainfall between 94 per cent and 106 per cent of the long-period average (LPA) is considered normal. Mohapatra highlighted two factors — the Indian Ocean Dipole and Madden-Julian Oscillation — that significantly influenced this year's monsoon season. Mohapatra said 15 low-pressure systems developed over India during the monsoon season against an average of 13, but their temporal distribution remained "skewed".
However, normal cumulative rainfall over the country during the monsoon season doesn't mean even spatial and temporal spread of precipitation.
The Indian monsoon refers to inherent fluctuations and changes that occur over time due to various natural factors. This is called natural variability. However, research shows climate change is making monsoon more variable. Increased variability means more extreme weather and dry spells.