As monsoon deficiency has touched over 55 per cent so far, a private weather forecaster Skymet on Monday said southwest monsoon which arrived a week late, is struggling to fulfill the stipulated objective conditions and rains may be patchy in the interiors of the country till the first week of July.
The private weather forecaster further predicted that light rains may occur in Delhi, Rajasthan, Uttarakhand and west Uttar Pradesh on Thursday and Friday under the influence of Cyclone Biparjoy which is gaining steam in the Arabian Sea. The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has also predicted light rain and generally cloudy sky on June 15 and June 16 in Delhi. Biparjoy is the only third ‘extremely severe’ cyclone to develop in the Arabian Sea in June in 58 years.
The season has so far accumulated a deficiency of over 55 per cent between June 1 and 12. There has been a 54 per cent rain deficiency in the country since June 1 with 53 per cent deficiency over south peninsula; 80 per cent deficiency over central India; 10 per cent deficiency over northwest India and 53 per cent deficiency over east and northeast India. “Skymet Extended Range Prediction System (ERPS) is projecting a dismal outlook for the next 4 weeks, between June 9 and July 6. Agriculture heartland is looking rather cracked and parched. This coincides with the crucial time of sowing or at least preparing the field, with the hope of impending decent rains. Inadequate rains over the central and western parts, the core monsoon zone will find it difficult to absorb the drying effects, rather early in the season. It is likely to leave the poor farmer in a state of indecisiveness choosing between the type of crop and the crop cycle,” Skymet said in a statement on Monday. “At present, visible manifestation of monsoon surge is limited to the Northeast India and West Coast. Weather systems in the Bay of Bengal are considered the main drivers of monsoon,” Skymet said. “The cyclone in the Arabian Sea, after making landfall on June 15, may bring scattered unseasonal rains over Rajasthan, Delhi, Uttarakhand and west Uttar Pradesh in the third week of June,” Skymet Weather said. However, it clarified that these will not be typical monsoon rains and may not even benefit agriculture operations due to their untimely nature.
Kuldeep Srivastava, the head of the IMD’s regional forecasting centre, said Delhi may get light rainfall under the influence of a fresh western disturbance and moisture-laden southwesterly winds from the Arabian Sea which will reach the city after crossing Rajasthan and south Haryana.