The April 12 by-election in the Malappuram lok Sabha constituency in Kerala is unlikely to have any big impact on the overall political atmosphere or administrative stability of the State but it is extremely important to the Congress, the UDF it is leading and its closest ally Muslim league whose top leader PK Kunhalikutty, a former Minister, is the front’s candidate.
Observers feel that the Congress and the UDF are facing the by-election in the Malappuram seat, which fell vacant due to the death of former Union Minister E Ahamed of the Muslim league, just when they are going through one of the most critical periods they have ever seen due to the intense group war in the Congress and lack of co-ordination among the UDF constituents.
“In a sense, the by-election can be seen as an opportunity for the UDF to prove that it is not yet out of steam if they can manage not only to win it but also to increase the winning margin from that in the 2014 election. If they are unable to achieve that, it will have serious consequences for the UDF’s lead parties and the front itself,” said a senior journalist of a pro-Congress newspaper.
Pundits say that the by-election is equally decisive as far Kunhalikutty, one of the most influential leaders in the Muslim league and UDF, is concerned. Kunhalikutty has to score a better victory than that achieved by Ahamed and a huge victory is necessary for him and the Muslim league to justify his candidature, they say.
However, the Muslim league is still unable to explain why it fielded Kunhalikutty, one of the most influential leaders in the party and UDF, as the by-election does not have any significance. There are already complaints within the league and outside that he is preparing to enter national politics by orphaning the UDF at its worst phase.
Even Muslim league leaders admit that it will be a herculean task to gain a convincing increase in the party’s winning margin in the constituency considering the condition the UDF is presently in. Also, Kunhalikutty’s victory in the lok Sabha by-poll will lead to another by-poll, in the Vengara constituency which he is presently representing in the Assembly.
“It is a complex situation. let us say that he will win but considering the political situation and the state the UDF is in, it is almost impossible for Kunhalikutty to increase the winning margin from the 1,94,739 votes Ahamed had bagged in 2014. If he is unable to do that it will be a blow to his pride and that of the Muslim league and the UDF,” said journalist PVS Warrier.
Observers also point out that the Malappuram by-election is an opportunity for both the CPI(M)-led lDF and the BJP to test the political waters. The CPI(M), which has fielded a young leader, MB Faisal, as candidate thinks that it can improve its position in Malappuram though it is not yet ready to talk about possibilities of victory.
“We all know the peculiarities of the seat and we must not underestimate the winning capacity of Muslim league or Kunhalikutty. At the same time, we had won here in 2004 when it was the Manjeri constituency before delimitation. The campaign has only started and let us wait for a few more days,” said a top leader of the CPI(M) from Malappuram.
The BJP, which has fielded N Sreeprakash, a young and influential leader from the region itself, as candidate has already claimed that the battle will be between him and Kunhalikutty and that lDF’s Faisal is an irrelevant candidate. BJP leaders say Sreeprakash, who had polled 64,705 votes in Malappuram as BJP candidate, would treble that score this time.