How realistic it is for the BJP to dream of ruling Kerala after the next State election (to be held in May), considering the fact that the party has not been able to win even a single Assembly seat so farIJ A section in the Kerala BJP’s leadership thinks that it is not unrealistic to keep this dream, when one examines the party’s performance in the local body election held two months ago.
The State BJP has started mobilising its resources with the hope of making a big impact in the Assembly elections based on the votes its candidates had polled in different District Panchayat divisions in the November civic poll. Among those who believe that the BJP can score a huge victory in the May polls is it’s the new State president Kummanam Rajasekharan.
The BJP thinks that victory for the party is almost certain in 39 of the total 140 Assembly constituencies in the State. Based on the number of votes party candidates had bagged in the local election, the party sees the possibility of tough triangular contests, in which it will be a strong contender, in 69 seats.
It is generally felt that a party stands a fair chance of winning an Assembly constituency if it can bag an average of 40,000 votes. If that is the case, the BJP thinks that it can easily win the Nemom, Manjeswaram and Kasaragod seats. The party had polled more than 40,000 votes in the District Panchayat election in each of these constituencies.
“I am not confirming or denying the reports that our plans are based on calculations of votes we had got in the local elections,” said a senior BJP leader. “But it is a fact that the local bodies poll does provide some pointers to a huge change that is waiting to happen in the electoral history of Kerala. let us see how it plays out in the Assembly polls,” he said.
BJP candidates had polled more than 35,000 votes each in the District Panchayat divisions that come within the limits of two Assembly constituencies. Apart from that, the party had bagged between 30,000 and 35,000 votes in District Panchayat divisions that come under 14 Assembly constituencies.
“What is interesting is that these constituencies do not belong to any particular region but are in different parts of the State,” the BJP leader pointed out. Three of such constituencies are in Thiruvananthapuram district, two each in Pathanamthitta, Kollam and Alappuzha, three in Thrissur and one each in Palakkad and Kozhikode districts.
BJP leaders also point out that the party stands a good chance of winning - with hard work - at least 20 more Assembly seats where its candidates in the District Panchayat elections had bagged between 25,000 and 30,000 votes. The fact that some of these seats are in areas of huge concentration of minorities is giving added confidence to the State BJP.
The BJP has also decided to field almost all its frontline leaders including present Kerala chief Kummanam, former State presidents V Muraleedharan and PK Krishnadas, senior leader and former Union minister O Rajagopal and State general secretary K Surendran in the Assembly election.
That the RSS will be playing a major role in strategy-formulation and that the SNDP Yogam, outfit of Hindu lower caste Ezhavas who form over 21 percent of the State’s population, and the new party of majority communities under its leadership can enter into an alliance with it are factors that enhance the BJP’s confidence as far as the Assembly polls are concerned.
However, observers are a bit skeptical about the BJP’s claim on its ability to make a zero-to-71-seat advance in the State election.
“It is an undeniable fact that the BJP has gained a lot of ground in Kerala electorally. But it has not yet gained enough strength to get majority on its own. It may win some seats but I won’t say how many,” said senior journalist PVS Warrier.