Social engineering formula of the BJP will be under litmus test in the second phase of polling in Uttar Pradesh on February 15 when polling is to be held on 67 seats.
The Muslims and Jats were focus of the media attention in the first phase of polling where 73 Assembly seats went to polls on February 11. In the second phase of polling besides Muslims, non-Yadav other Backward Castes and Extremely Backward Castes (EBCs) and Jat community will decide the fate of the parties and their candidates in majority of the seats.
The second phase is crucial for all the three major contenders of power in UP — BJP, BSP and Samajwadi Party-Congress alliance. The Dalit and Muslim coalition forged by the BSP will also be under test this time around particularly in Bijnor and Saharanpur.
Most of the BSP leaders from the EBCs have deserted the BSP and have switched over to the BJP. Dharm Singh Saini, from Mali community of Saharanpur is now the BJP candidate from Nakud Assembly seat. In 2012 elections the EBCs and the Muslims had supported the SP. This time the situation is different as the EBCs are fighting for their identity as a voting bloc like the Muslims and Dalit.
In Bijnor district, Jat community appears to be reluctant to vote for the Rashtriya lok Dal (RlD). In the first phase of elections Jats had voted for the RlD in Meerut, Bagpat and Muzaffarnagar districts.
The Jat community in Bijnor is incensed over the recent murder of a Jat youth allegedly by the relatives of a Muslim youth who was killed last year following a clash between Jats and Muslims over alleged eve teasing.
Official sources as well as leaders of different political parties said the reason for the sharp spurt in first phase of polling was not only due to the higher turnout of the Muslims voters in view of the 2013 communal riots in Muzaffarnagar, the higher turnout of the of the OBCs was also an important factor.
In the second phase all eyes will be on the turn out of the non Yadav OBCs and EBCs voters. The BJP in these elections has mobilised the non Yadav OBCs in a big way across the State.
The BJP has given over 41 per cent of the tickets to the EBCs and non Yadav PBCs. It’s for the first time since the implementation of the Mandal Commission report in 1990 and subsequent elections, the BJP is the first political party to have discovered the virtues of mobilising the non Yadav OBCs and EBCs across the State.
In west UP, covered in first and second phase of polling the EBCs and non Yadav OBCs are in significant numbers in Saharanpur, Moradabad, Bareilly, and Badaun and Shahjahanpur districts. In the districts going to polls in second phase of polling Yadav are in sizeable numbers only in Badaun and Sambhal district. Mulayam Singh Yadav and his brother Ram Gopal Yadav both have won the lok Sabha election in the past from Sambhal lok Sabha constituency.
In 2012 Assembly elections, out of the 67 seats Samaj had won highest 34 seats followed by BSP-18, BJP-10, Congress-3 and others 2.