The arrest of Kerala-based Maoist leader Roopesh along with wife Shyna and three aides on Monday from Karumathampatty, Coimbatore is certainly a big blow to the left extremists but it is unlikely to cause a serious dissipation of the movement in the State as many officials in the Kerala Police tend to believe, according to security experts and political observers.
Reports from the Adivasi areas in the State’s northern parts say that many young men are still being attracted to the movement and the central command of the CPI(Maoist) has already started emergency efforts to maintain coordination of activities. Intelligence agencies have information that a new leader has already been put in the place of Roopesh for operations in the State.
A former top Kerala Police official with specialization in anti-Naxalite operations said that “only fools will believe” that the arrest of a few leaders would mark the end of Maoist activities in the forest areas of Wayanad and Kannur. “Many had written off the Maoists by mid-1980s. But we know what happened later,” he said.
Observers who have been tracking the Maoist movement in Kerala, Karnataka and Tamil Nadu say that the organization cannot just strike off Kerala from its map just when the movement has started getting positive response from its target audience, mostly the Adivasis. However, they agree that it will take a while for the CPI(Maoist) to figure out how to proceed further.
“Maoists won’t lose relevance in the Adivasi areas of northern Kerala as long as the social and economic realities remain unchanged. Adivasis have started realizing how huge the socio-economic gap between them and the outside world is. The fact is that they don’t trust the traditional politician,” said the chief of an NGO working among Adivasis in Wayanad.
Senior journalist PVS Warrier, a close observer of the Naxalite movement, is of the opinion that the Maoists in Kerala have never been on the right track in Kerala politically but that does not mean that they are politically irrelevant. “That situation does not change with an arrest or two though the recent arrests mean a big setback for the CPI(Maoist),” he said.
Even officials of the Kerala Police admit that many youths are still opting to join the Maoist movement and that the police have not yet been able to identify these new entrants, working in front organizations, mainly in the field of environment and land, and put them under their scanner.
The Maoists had carried out a minimum of ten attacks in Kerala since November last and the careful selection of targets had helped them gain some appeal among certain sections of the society as the issues they had taken up were of water, land and environment around which mafias backed by politicians have developed in the State.
The Maoist attacks, part of the organization’s campaign to establish its base in the Kerala-Karnataka-Tamil Nadu trijunction, had started with an attack on the corporate office in Kochi of gelatin manufacturer Nitta Gelatin on November 10. The last attack was on the project office of the National Highways Authority in Kalamassery near Kochi on January 29.
legal experts say that the cases against Roopesh may not ensure his imprisonment for a long time. He is wanted in eleven cases in Wayanad district, including the reported exchange of fire with the police at Vellamunda and attacks on two tourist resorts in Thirunelli. He is facing eight cases in the limits of the Vellamunda Police Station alone.