At the end of tireless toiling through 70 days of burning summer, Kerala’s Congress-led ruling UDF and CPI(M)-led Opposition lDF on Sunday looked absolutely certain about victory in the crucial Assembly election for which polling is being held on Monday as the BJP-led NDA exuded confidence of not just “opening account” but also of becoming a decisive force in the State’s legislative process.
Most of the pre-poll surveys held till last week had predicted a slight edge for the left. While one survey done in the middle of April predicted that the left might come to power by winning 75 to 81 of the total 140 seats, another survey held a week ago predicted that the lDF might bag anything between 81 to 89 seats.
Poll pundits are not ready to totally accept or reject the validity of and sincerity behind such surveys but they suggest the mood of the particular section of the electorate which actually decides the outcome might have undergone a huge change in the past one week which had seen mind-boggling escalation in the campaign battle across the State.
A poll analyst from Kochi said prediction contests were going on within the political parties also and that it was a war between realists and dreamers. While the so-called realists in the CPI(M) are satisfied by predicting a victory with 75 to 80 seats, the dreamers show the boldness to predict a victory by winning more than 100 seats, “which I think is to stretch it too far,” he says.
Similarly, realists in the Congress say that the UDF may retain power by winning between 72 and 75 seats while the over-enthusiastic leaders claim that the front might bag up to 85 seats. However, not many leaders of the BJP are willing to speak about the number of seats the NDA may bag. “All I want to say is that the outcome will surprise you all,” said a top BJP leader.
“There will be continuity of the UDF rule and the front will win more seats than it had got in the last election,” said Congress Chief Minister Oommen Chandy on Sunday. “The people’s verdict will be against the politics of violence of the Marxists and the divisive, communal agenda of the BJP,” he said, adding that the NDA would not open account in the State in this election also.
Nonagenarian Marxist and State Assembly’s Opposition leader VS Achuthanandan rejects this claim altogether. “The people have lost trust in the UDF due to its leaders’ corruption and immorality and anti-people policies. The left will come to power with convincing majority,” he said. He also claimed that the BJP would not win even a single seat.
NDA leaders are not surprised by such statements. The BJP, which has gone through its campaign with meticulous planning and execution, is certain that it is giving a tough challenge to both the fronts in more than 40 percent of the seats and that it will bag some of the most crucial seats in its well-planned journey to capturing power in the State.
The BJP leadership is convinced that its popularity had increased manifold in the last leg of campaigning, particularly with the arrival of Prime Minister Narendra Modi. “We are fighting against the politics of adjustment being played by the UDF and the left. I am sure that we have been able to convey this message to the people. The results will prove it,” said a BJP leader.