With the northeastern monsoon betraying the State more harshly than the southwestern monsoon, anxiety is escalating in Kerala about the possibility of an extremely severe drought in the coming months even as most rivers in the State have already dried up and the water level in the reservoirs is plummeting by the day.
When the rainfall in the June-September southwestern monsoon showed a deficit of over 34 percent in the State, the people had expected the northeastern monsoon to bring good showers. But the shortfall in rainfall in the October-December northeastern monsoon has been 59 percent and weathermen have declared that the monsoon has already weakened.
Atmospheric temperature had shown considerable drop in the initial days of the current month and mist and fog have started veiling the mountainous areas of the State. Environmental scientists say that this is an indication that the winter is setting in much earlier than usual this time in the State and that it also indicates that the monsoon is receding.
As per the statistics with the India Meteorological Department for the November 1-9 period, Kerala had received only 150mm rainfall whereas the normal expected rainfall was 362 mm. Rainfall has been scant in almost all regions of the State but the worst hit were the northern districts of Kasaragod and Kozhikode where the deficit was 84 percent.
In the same period last year, Kasaragod had received 20 percent excess rains whereas the excess was by 32 percent in Kozhikode. The situation is equally alarming in south Kerala where heavy rains should have been occurring currently. The shortfall in showers this season is 80 percent in Thiruvananthapuram district which had received 51 percent excess rainfall in the last season.
All districts except Wayanad and Palakkad had received excess monsoon rainfall last year. As per the rain pattern in Kerala, northern regions get heavier rainfall than the southern regions in the southwestern monsoon whereas the northeastern monsoon used to be more intense in the south. Kerala receives 70 percent of its annual rainfall in the June-September monsoon and the State’s power generation and agriculture are dependent on this season for water.
However, Kerala suffered a rainfall deficit of 34 percent in the southwestern monsoon season due mainly to the El Nino condition that prevailed over the Pacific and also – according to eco-scientists – because of environmental degradation forcing Keralites to put all their hopes on the northeastern monsoon which has turned out to be even worse.
“There is no reason to be hopeful about heavy rains in the remaining weeks of the northeastern monsoon. The IMD also seems to be of the same view. In this situation, the Government has to take effective steps anticipating a drought of unprecedented severity occurring from the very early days of the summer,” said a senior official from the State Water Resources Department.
The Government had declared all the 14 districts in the State as drought hit on October 31 considering the gravity of the situation. Officials said that sufficient follow-up action would be there. Severe drinking water shortage has already been reported from areas under nine Grama Panchayats in the State.
Certain areas in central Kerala have been receiving isolated rainfall in the past two weeks but hydrologists say that groundwater replenishment might not have been happening as the showers are not strong enough for the rainwater to seep down into the soil. “This means that open wells are likely to go dry in early summer itself,” said Ajith Kumar, a hydrologist from Thrissur.
Water level in the hydel reservoirs of the State has dipped alarmingly hinting at the possibility that the State could in all likelihood face a power crisis this year itself. Officials of the Kerala State Electricity Board said the current water storage in the hydel reservoirs will not be sufficient for generating power till the summer.