Many allies of the Congress and the CPI(M) in the ruling UDF and Opposition lDF they head respectively in Kerala are dissatisfied with the front leaders’ attitude to them but that fact is unlikely to be of much help to West Bengal Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee’s Trinamool Congress in materialising its dream of entering into the State in a big way, say observers.
However, reports that the TMC is planning to approach the allies of the Congress and the CPI(M) with the goal of getting a foothold in Kerala have caused discomfort among the leaderships of both parties which are already disturbed by the rise in confidence seen in the BJP in the context of its prime ministerial candidate Narendra Modi’s increasing popularity.
Though there are reports that the Trinamool leadership has already held informal talks with some of the allies of the Congress and CPI(M) it is trying to woo, leaders of these parties are refusing to confirm this. TMC general secretary Mukul Roy is believed to try to meet leaders of these parties during his reported visit to Kerala this weekend.
Political analysts in Kerala are of the opinion that the State does not have the political and sociological scenario suitable for the kind of ideology that Trinamool represents and therefore it would be difficult for it to get a firm footing here at least for the time being. “But, of course, we don’t know what strategies Mamata has devised,” said a senior editor of an English daily.
As per reports, Mamata is trying woo Congress allies Muslim league, which already has a unit in West Bengal and has been fielding candidates in polls there, Kerala Congress (M), Communist Marxist Party and Socialist Janata-Democratic and Islamist leader Abdul Nasser Madani’s PDP. The Marxist ally in TMC’s scope is said to be the Congress (S).
However, observers believe that none of these parties, barring perhaps the PDP, would want to go with Mamata in the particular political context of Kerala. “It is not that these parties are loyal to the core to their respective coalitions. The fact is that there is no reason for them to believe that they could trust Mamata more than the Congress or the CPI(M),” said the journalist.
It is pointed out that Kerala does not have almost any of the social conditions that ensure the growth of a party like the Trinamool Congress if it chooses to go through the ideological path. “Mainstream politics here is not about basic factors like food or class recognition and conflict on which the TMC had relied in West Bengal,” said Ajay Kumar, a Kochi-based sociologist.
“There are marginalised and discriminated sections like the Adivasis and fringe elements like some Naxalite groups but they will either be unwilling to join hands with Mamata or are not forces worth considering in the context of Kerala’s electoral politics. But with patience and hard work, TMC may have an impact in the long run,” he pointed out.