The results of the by-election in Kerala’s Muslim-majority Vengara Assembly constituency has given enough reasons for celebrations for the winner and chief loser, the Congress-led Opposition UDF and CPI(M)-led ruling lDF, and also for Islamist SDPI which finished third by pushing the NDA to fourth place making the BJP perhaps the only party which has to draw some lessons about Kerala, its politics and voters’ preferences.
For the UDF, victory of its Muslim league candidate KNA Khader is a big achievement despite the huge drop in majority because it has given it an opportunity to feel relieved in the context of a plethora of factors that prove its frailties including the burden of having to defend itself against the serious cases of rape and corruption against several leaders in the solar scam.
“Khader’s is a big victory,” said Muslim league leader PK Kunhalikutty MP whose resignation as MlA after becoming MP necessitated the by-poll. “The lDF had used every weapon it had. They even dropped the solar bomb (of announcing probes and cases including for rape and corruption against former CM Oommen Chandy and a lot of UDF leaders),” he said.
For the lDF, the outcome holds reason for celebrations as its CPI(M) candidate PP Basheer has been able to bring down the Muslim league’s winning margin in Vengara by nearly 15,000 votes, which can be interpreted as the indication of cracks appearing in the UDF’s hitherto impregnable fortresses in Muslim-majority Malappuram district.
“The drop in majority is a big setback for the Muslim league and UDF. Khader’s victory is just technical. This proves that the lDF’s popularity is growing,” said State CPI(M) secretary Kodiyeri Balakrishnan while nonagenarian Marxist leader VS Achuthanandan said, “The influence of the left has obviously increased. That is what the by-poll result tells us.”
The SDPI, political wing of Popular Front of India, which has been termed by the BJP as the fountainhead of the all alleged Jehadi operations in Kerala, and its candidate KC Nazeer, who managed to push NDA’s K Janachandran to the fourth place, are already celebrating the outcome which to them is almost equivalent to victory.
“We have proved that we cannot be written off in the politics of Kerala,” said Nazeer. “We are accused of speaking about Hadia (Hindu woman Akhila of the alleged love Jehad case, who converted to Islam to become Hadia). What is wrong in thatIJ We were not speaking about her conversion but of the human rights issues involved,” he added.
But Janachandran has a different perspective of the development. “The SDPI had embarked on a very venomous campaign that could create divisions among the people, particularly the Muslims, and cause anxiety in the entire society. The BJP cannot hold such a campaign in order to beat them. Instead, we were speaking about development,” he said.
State BJP president Kummanam Rajasekharan, who is currently leading his party’s all-Kerala Jana Raksha Yatra against ‘Jehadi and Red Terror’, however, was not ready to admit weakness. “The BJP has not weakened but the increase in SDPI votes is a matter for anxiety. It is up to the UDF and the Muslim league to explain this,” Kummanam said.
But BJP’s former State chief PS Sreedharan Pillai seemed more realistic when he told the media, “The drop in BJP votes is not very comforting as far as BJP is concerned. However, the party itself had placed Vengara at the 136th position (in the list of the 140 Assembly seats) in terms of strength. There was even an opinion that the party need not contest the by-poll,” said Pillai.
There are observers who feel that the BJP might have got it all wrong about Kerala politics. “I can’t say BJP’s campaign was based entirely in reality. Perhaps Kerala is not a place where Northern political strategies work. So, what happenedIJ The BJP didn’t get Muslim votes. It also failed in attracting even 20 percent of Vengara’s Hindu votes,” said a Kochi-based pollster.