The Government formation in Jammu & Kashmir would be a tough exercise if a hung verdict is thrown by the voters who registered 66 per cent turnout in the just concluded Assembly elections. However, US President Barack Obama’s upcoming visit to India on Republic Day is likely to expedite the Government formation unlike in 2002 when the permutations and combinations took more than five weeks to forge an alliance between the Congress and People’s Democratic Party (PDP).
This time around, the possible emergence of the BJP as a strong force is another factor that would prolong the Government formation. The PDP and BJP are projected to emerge as two largest parties from Kashmir Valley and Jammu region respectively. The incumbent ruling coalition parties—the National Conference (NC) and the Congress are likely to be the major losers.
“The Assembly polls in J&K have never been so unpredictable in recent history. It is very difficult to say with authority who is going to win and which party would form the Government,” said senior journalist Rashid Ahmad. Even as the PDP is projected to emerge as single largest party, no party is likely to get the required magic number of 44 seats to form the Government without outer support.
“The forging of alliance would be a difficult exercise. Ideally, the PDP would like to form coalition with the Congress as it did in 2002 but that depends on number of seats Congress bags,” Ahmad said. The other choice is difficult. The BJP that swept the lok Sabha polls to reach the echelons of power in New Delhi would, for the first time in the history of J&K, impose its role in the Government formation. Its alliance with the Congress is impossible. The NC has ruled out any alliance with the party in the backdrop of its “bitter past experience”. The NC was part of the NDA when it ruled J&K between 1996 and 2002.
“On the face of it, forging an alliance between PDP and BJP to collect 44 sum would be easier but that would mean a paradigm shift in PDP outlook and politics,” said Mudassir Ahmad, a political analyst. The NC is waiting for the verdict as “surprise” and hopes to form the next government or at least be part of the dispensation. The NC’s alliance with PDP is not a possibility just like an alliance between Congress and the BJP. The lone choice left with the NC is to realign with the Congress but that depends on the cumulative sum both the parties would post after the results.