India is on course to have an “approved” vaccine within the first quarter of next year and Pune-based Serum Institute of India (SII), the world’s largest vaccine manufacturer by volume, is well placed to deliver the first vaccine, according to a report from Bernstein Research, a top Wall Street research and brokerage firm.
“Globally, there are four candidates that are close to an approval by the end of 2020 or early 2021. Through partnerships India has access to two of those - AZ/Oxford’s viral vector vaccine and Novavax’s protein sub-unit vaccine with AZ/Oxford’s vaccine ahead by a quarter,” said the Bernstein report, according to a news agency.
“With their existing capabilities and capacities SII is best positioned to commercialise one or both of the partnered vaccine candidates depending on approval timing, capacities and pricing.”
Data from Phase 1 and Phase trials look promising for both these candidates “in terms of safety and the vaccines ability to elicit an immune response”. The way things look now, the report indicates that both vaccine candidates “will require two doses to be administered 21/28 days apart”.
The SII, the report said, could supply 600 million doses in 2021 and 1 billion doses in 2022, out of which 400 to 500 million “should be available in India in 2021” in the context of the company’s commitments to Gavi, The Vaccine Alliance and lower and middle income markets.
The report estimates that vaccine volumes will be split 55:45 between the Government and private market.
“We believe the Government channel will have first access to the capacities but also believe there will be a sizable private market. In terms of funding, manpower and delivery infrastructure the Government will struggle to shoulder the burden on its own and we expect the private market to step in and supplement.”
Apart from SII, the report lists at least three other Indian pharma companies - Zydus, Bharat Biotech and Biological E - which are working on their own vaccine candidates and are currently in Phase 1 and 2.