Though South Gujarat sends least numbers of 35 Assembly seats compared to other three regions in the poll bound State, it boasts of the most diverse demography, geography and economy.
Fourteen out of 26 Scheduled Tribe (ST) reserved seats falls in South Gujarat due to large tribal population. On the contrary, the region has urban population concentrated in and around diamond city Surat where large number of migrants came from various States settled, especially from Rajasthan, Uttar Pradesh and Bihar. Apart from dense forest areas, South Gujarat is blessed with coastline, perennial rivers like Narmada and Tapi and even highly industrialise zones.
As far as caste diversity is concerned, Koli and Patidar are two most dominant communities here apart from tribal. Muslims and other minorities too have sway over 8-10 seats. Booming diamond and textile industries in Surat and surrounding areas to have influence on voting pattern. South Gujarat also houses large industrial hubs at Ankleshwar in Bharuch district as well as at Vapi in Valsad district.
With booth-wise micro management system in place, cadre based ruling BJP has natural advantage in such diverse condition. It reflected in 2012 Assembly polls as the saffron brigade went on to win 28 seats. Traditionally tribal votes go in favour of Congress. But it was Narendra Modi, who as Gujarat Chief Minister could woo tribal voters and made major dent in Congress vote bank in last Assembly polls as well as lok Sabha elections.
Ahmed Patel, senior Congress leader and political adviser of All India Congress Committee (AICC) president Sonia Gandhi, who belongs to Bharuch, is putting efforts to regain lost bastion in 2017 Assembly polls. As part of it, Congress came into alliance with strong tribal leader Chhotu Vasava’s newly form political outfit Bhartiya Tribal Party (BTP) and decided not to contest from four tribal dominated seats in support of BTP. Moreover, in the backdrop of pro-quota Patidar agitation, the opposition party is banking upon Patidar dominated seats too.
Interestingly BJP won 15 out of 16 seats in Surat district alone in 2012 Assembly polls where large numbers of Patidars are residing. Hardik Patel led pro-quota agitation would have some negative impact here. Besides flourishing textile and diamond industries are also having issues post demonetisation and GST.
Four seats in the district have mix of urban and rural population that include three ST reserve seats where BJP controlled sugar and milk co-operatives have huge influence. Sugarcane prices are high and farmers are earning well due to policy of the state government, says Vasant Gamit. Contrary to Gamit, textile traders talking negative for BJP-ruled Government at Centre.
“Rahul Gandhi during his visit to Surat raised issue of unemployment. I think it was his biggest mistake. The city offers maximum employment opportunities and attacking lakhs of migrants to work here,” says Harsh Sanghvi, sitting BJP MlA from Majura constituency in Surat. Migrants too echo Sanghvi, saying that connectivity to Northern States from Surat improved in the past three years after Modi became Prime Minister.
Diamond industry employs more than five lakh workers directly. Around 70 per cent of them are working with 25 odd big units have Rs 5000 crore plus turnover. The owners of units generally give mandate to their workers ahead of the polling day. Traditionally these diamond barons are pro BJP. Some of them are having personal relations with the Prime Minister. They would naturally support BJP. large population of Marthi community in Surat is staunch support of saffron party.
Considering Congress party’s inability to form strong organisational structure in this part of the State and the ruling party’s booth level micro management, even in presence huge anti-incumbency factor BJP would have upper hand in South Gujarat.