Notwithstanding the rise in day temperatures, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) has predicted a fresh spate of western disturbances in the Western Himalayan region and adjoining plains of North-West India. This will result in snowfall in Kashmir and Himachal Pradesh followed by rain in the lower regions in the next 24 hours.
According to IMD officials, such erratic weather is due to the current Western Disturbance (WD) over North Pakistan and the adjoining Jammu & Kashmir which is moving East-North-eastwards. It is expected to descend to surface as a low pressure area during the next 24 hours affecting northwest India. However, its impact is unlikely to be as intense as in the previous three instances. Temperature is expected to start rising soon.
Rain is expected at isolated places over Jammu & Kashmir and Himachal Pradesh. Scattered downpour accompanied by thunderstorms / hail may hit some places of Punjab, lower terrains of Himachal Pradesh, Uttarakhand, Punjab, Haryana, Chandigarh Rajasthan, Uttar Pradesh, besides parts of Central India. Certain parts of Tamil Nadu, Pudducherry and Kerala may also witness rain in the days to come.
Delhi may also witness partly cloudy skies with possibility of rain or thunderstorms in the days to come. The city as per IMD has already recorded the wettest March in last five years. The weather scientists have however allayed fears that untimely rains due to WD would impact the South-West Monsoons. The rains this year will be around 103 per cent of the long Period Average (lPA), which is the average rainfall in the past 50 years.
However, there may be pockets where the showers are expected to be deficient. These include parts of Himachal Pradesh, Punjab, Haryana, Uttarakhand, south interior Karnataka, north Tamil Nadu and parts of the northeast. According to certain weather scientists, the impact of El Nino is not likely to affect the South-West monsoons this year. El Nino causes unusual rainfall patterns across the world which may be either deficient or heavy.
The experts, however, pointed out that El Niño is presently in a neutral phase. The ocean temperatures and rainfall patterns are near the long-term average. This improves chances of the country to get normal monsoon this year, they added.