Forecast by the Indian Meteorological Department of a not-very-late onset of the southwest monsoon and normal rainfall during the four-month season has spread cheer among Keralites who have been reeling under a long and bitter summer that had forced the State Government to declare of all the 14 districts as drought-hit.
As per the IMD forecast, the southwest monsoon would touch the coast of Kerala, its threshold to the entire sub-continent, on June 3, two days behind the normal schedule but two days earlier compared to last year’s onset. The first rains of the last southwest monsoon had touched Kerala on June 5 last year.
Scientists at the IMD unit in Thiruvananthapuram said that the expected slight delay in the onset of the monsoon is due to the recent cyclone over the Bay of Bengal. Changes in atmospheric conditions favouring the onset of monsoon would become perceptible in the next two days, they said but added that this could not be considered as indications of early onset.
After the drastic rainfall deficit during last southwestern and northeastern monsoons, Kerala had gone though one of the worst droughts it had faced in the past 40 years. The State had suffered a total of 24-per cent rainfall deficit in the two monsoons, which led to the non-replenishment of ground water reserve which in turn caused severe drinking water shortage.
Almost all of the 44 rivers running across the State’s territory had dried up affecting severely the drinking water supply systems that catered to millions of people. As per rough estimates, the crop destruction due to the drought had led to a loss of almost Rs 15,000 crore. In Palakkad district alone, paddy cultivation in over 15,000 acres was destroyed due to absence of irrigation.
“I am happy to hear the forecast on good monsoon though my losses of this year cannot be offset with just one crop,” said Parameswaran Nair of Chittur, Palakkad, who had lost paddy cultivation in five acres of land. “last year also, they (weathermen) had forecast normal rains but we had a terrible rainfall deficit,” he said.
Weathermen said that the frequent rains Kerala was getting presently were not part of monsoon but were only pre-monsoon showers. However, they said that heavy rains could continue for two more days across the State.