The internal strife in the Congress and non-existence of its coalition with the National Conference (NC) has brightened chances for the BJP to win the ladakh parliamentary seat in Jammu & Kashmir scheduled to go for polls on May 7. BJP vice-president Mukhtar Abbas Naqvi on Thursday addressed two well-attended rallies in Kargil and Dras towns to boost support for Thupstan Chewang, a former MP who is contesting on the BJP ticket.
ladakh is J&K’s sparsely populated constituency spread over hilly Buddhist-dominated leh and Muslim majority Kargil districts with the lowest electorate of 1,61,000. Around 4,000 service voters are also expected to cast their votes.
Observers say that it is virtually direct contest between Chewang and Congress candidate Tsering Samphel, though two Independent candidates from Kargil — Gulam Raza and Aga Sabir Kazmi — are also in the fray.
Samphel, a former member of the National Minority Commission, is the district president of Congress in leh. Interestingly, before the party chose him to contest, Raza was his counterpart in Kargil and lobbied for mandate to his mentor Asghar Karbalae. The party’s decision in favour of Samphel brought vertical split in the ladakh Congress triggering Raza's resignation from the Congress and filing papers as Independent candidate.
The outgoing MP Hassan Khan, who was NC’s proxy in 2009 elections, chose not to contest this time. Khan is part of Islamia School, a religious group that commands sway on majority of electors in the Shia-dominated Kargil. It is believed that Sabri was fielded by NC-backed Islamia School with some local political interests, but soon after his candidature their rivals sabotaged the plans. Consequently, the Islamia School leadership lost interest in Sabri. Authoritative sources said that this situation is likely to help Chewang who has managed to organise rallies in Kargil and Dras. They say that if Chewang is able to garner effective support from Kargil, he would easily sail through.
The Congress predicament is that it lost the Kargil support when Karbalae was not chosen to contest. Karbalae is currently the Chief Executive Councilor of ladakh Autonomous Hill Development Council, Kargil and owes his strength to Imam Khomeini Memorial Trust (IKMT), a parallel religious organisation in Kargil. He joined the Congress only a few years back, one of the main reasons that the mandate went to his senior party colleague. But he was determined to contest, and after facing rebuff he asked his lieutenant Gulam Raza to take the plunge. This is seen as an act to settle scores with the Congress leadership.
In the past Kargil's religious groups have joined hands to defeat candidates from leh but this time the internal strife has touched the bitterest level forcing them to field two candidates. While IKMT supporters would vote for Raza, Islamia School supporter's votes would be distributed between BJP and Aga Sabri.
A senior Congress leader in leh said that Karbalae's rebellion was unwarranted and unexpected. "This is a setback but we are confident that the voters across ladakh would repose trust in us and vote for our candidate", he said.
Thupastan Chewang, who is founder of ladakh Union Territory Front (lUTF), which merged into BJP in 2004 is confident for his win. “I have full support in leh where people are fed up with Congress-led lAHDC. There is yearning for change in ladakh in the same manner as it is in other parts of country. The Modi's name is also making a difference", Chewang told The Pioneer on phone.
Naqvi's presence in Kargil also helped his campaigning even as Narendra Modi's programme to address a rally in leh has not materialized.
Chewang admitted that the internal bickering in Congress as well as National Conference would benefit him. However, the Congress leader in leh said that his party would win over the performance of its leaders. "ladakh got the best deal in grant of administrative units. Nawang Rigzin Jora is the most effective minister consecutively for past 11 years. His contributions to ladakh are unmatched", he said. Jora is relentlessly campaigning for Samphel.
Interestingly, both Samphel and Chewang woo leh voters on Union Territory status to ladakh.