While a sense of Islamophobia stalks the rest of the world, India has emerged as the most fertile ground for this religion to grow and flourish. This is not the findings of political or social leaders but the result of a path breaking scientific research carried out by a respected demographic expert based in Germany.
According to Padmavathi Srinivasan, an authority on corporate business informatics who gave up building corporate enterprises and switched over to population studies and research, the Total Fertility Rate (TFR) of Muslim women in India is the highest with 3.7, while the Hindu women lag far behind with a TFR score of 3. Translated to the layman’s language, the Muslim community has 3.7 children per woman while Christians have 3.3 children per woman and the Hindus 3 children per woman.
Srinivasan’s findings are based on various data which include the census figures of 1991, 2001 and 2011, district-level household surveys, annual health surveys, National Family and Health Survey held during 2005 to 2015.
The research findings underwent scrutiny by Prof M D Srinivas, chairman, Centre for Policy Studies, Chennai and Prof JK Bajaj, Director CPS (both theoretical physicists-turned-demographic scientists and co-authors with AP Joshi of the much discussed volume Religious Demography of India).
The Muslim women in the age group of 15-19 topped the fertility rate with 130.6 points. Christian women came second with 121 points while Hindu women had to content with 114 points. Interestingly, Muslim women led others in all age groups (20-24, 25-29 and 30-34) with highest fertility rate. They scored 198.1, 156.7 and 102.1 points respectively while their Christian counterparts had figures of 121, 194.5 and 162.6 respectively. Hindu women finished a poor third with figures of 190, 131 and 68 which showed that their fertility rate is far below the Muslims and Christians.
Some findings by Srinivasan could bring cheer to the hearts of health specialists is the decrease in the percentage of child marriages (females getting married during the 10-14 age group). While the 1991 studies showed 4.6 per cent girls getting married in the 10-14 age group, by 2011 the figure has come down to 2.7 per cent. “But this is only a cosmetic change. There are many districts in the country like Malappuram and Kasargod in Kerala where girls in that age group are still married off. This is a matter of concern,” explained Padma Srinivasan.
The number of females who are married off in the 15-19 age group too has shown a marginal decrease, said Srinivasan. “The decline was steeper during 1991 to 2001. But the same could not be said about the decade 2001 to 2011,” she said.
Ajith Ranganath, Chennai-based corporate lawyer who is passionate about demographic studies, expressed reservations about the falling fertility rate of Hindu woman. “The fact that Muslim and Christian women have higher fertility rates is proof of this country’s religious tolerance,” pointed out Ranganath. He also pointed out the vast differences in the fertility rate between the Muslim and Hindu women could adversely affect the religious demography of the country.
West Bengal stands out from the remaining part of the country in this segment. While the national average of females in the 15-19 age group married off in 1991, 2001 and 2011 were 35.7, 24.9 and 19.9 respectively, the corresponding figures for Bengal were 33.7, 29.4 and 28.4. “There has been only a one per cent point decrease in the case of Bengal compared to the national figure of five per cent point decrease.
The child marriages were reported more from areas with less connectivity and shortage of infrastructure facilities. “Wherever there are schools, hospitals, road connectivity and higher literacy rates, instances of girls being married off in the 10-14 and 15-19 have come down,” said Padma Srinivasan.
Both Prof Srinivas and Prof JK Bajaj were of the view that the findings were interesting and a window to the new world of an emerging Indian society. “The fact that early marriages have come down in areas with high infrastructure availability should be an eye opener to policy planners,” said Prof Bajaj.