Gone are the days when cyclones used to take people by surprise and shock. Not anymore. Scientists have succeeded in tracking the deadly cyclones like a sleuth shadowing a suspected person before swooping down on him like a lightening.
Dr TM Balakrishnan Nair, head, Ocean Service and Information Services Group, INCOIS, Hyderabad, detected an abnormality in the Bay of Bengal on October 7 from the data provided by wave rider buoys deployed in the Bay of Bengal and automatic coastal weather stations off Vishakhapattanam and Gopalpur. “These instruments give us real time data about height of sea waves, speed and direction and sea surface temperature. Add to this, the atmospheric information and we run it against the ocean forecast model prepared by us. This will give us what is in store for us,” Dr Nair told The Pioneer from the INCOIS master control room in Hyderabad.
The details furnished by the wave rider buoys helped Dr Nair and his team of scientists to elucidate that the cyclone Hudhud which is severe in nature was moving towards the Indian east coast targeting Andhra Pradesh and Orissa. “This will move west and west northwards, intensify further into a very severe cyclonic storm during next 24 hours”, said Dr Nair. INCOIS started monitoring and forecasting associated high waves, the remotely forced waves hitting the Indian coast before the arrival of the cyclone, high winds and ocean currents. The dissemination of High Wave Warnings for the users started on October 7, 2014.
The uniqueness of INCOIS forecast is that it could pinpoint the exact region where the cyclone would strike and that too hours in advance. “This will facilitate disaster management authorities to issue early warnings and help local body officials to evacuate the potential victims to safe areas. We are also disseminating information about the impending cyclones to a host of agencies like Indian Navy, Coast Guard, oil rigs, fishermen who venture out to sea,” he said.
According to the observation made by Team INCOIS, the cyclone will cross northern Andhra Pradesh coast near Visakhapatnam by the forenoon of Oct 12, 2014, as per the present observations and predictions. The waves along the Andhra Pradesh and Odisha coasts are likely to be quite high ranging from 3.0 to 7.0 m. The maximum affected coastal locations stretch from West Godavari to Srikakulam in Andhra Pradesh and Ganjam to Jagatsinghpur in Odisha.
The currents along the coast are also likely to be quite high (140 -190 cm/sec.) during the time of landfall.