Though the country is expected to receive “deficient” rainfall this year, weather experts have predicted that there is no scientific evidence of a drought this year in the country. According to the forecast, August-September monsoon rains is expected to be 95 per cent of the long-period average (lPA).
The latest estimate of India Meteorology Department (IMD) suggests that rainfall as a whole across the country is likely to be 87 per cent of lPA from the earlier predicted 93 per cent earlier due to its slow start. The rainfall is said to be “below normal” when it is 90-96 per cent of lPA. However, the latest overall figure of 87 per cent rains indicates “deficient” rains.
IMD sources said the figure went down due to shortfall of rain in June, which was 43 per cent of lPA. The monsoon however picked up in July which saw 90 per cent of rainfall and more in the first half of August. Despite this, the shortfall in June was too much to be compensated, they said.
The Minister of Science & Technology / Earth Sciences Jitendra Singh, however, went on record on Tuesday saying, "There is no scientific evidence to suggest that there is drought. There is no reason to be alarmed about it. Overall it is not a pessimistic picture."
The Northwest part of the country will however continue to be hit with 76 per cent of rainfall. The Southern Peninsula is expected to receive 87 per cent rains of lPA. Central India on the other hand has been predicted to receive 89 per cent of rainfall and Northeast India is expected to get the highest rainfall of 93 per cent.
But, weather scientists have not ruled out the impact of El Nino during the remaining period of monsoon. "There is about 50 per cent chance of weak El Niño conditions to develop during the remaining part of the summer monsoon season", they said. This apart, other factors such as the sea surface temperature of Indian Ocean has also some influence on Indian monsoon.
They added that the assessment of latest forecasts suggests only a moderate probability of the development of a weak negative Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) event during the second half of the monsoon season. The difference in temperature between the waters in the western and eastern parts of Indian Ocean is called the IOD. Negative values of IOD are known to depress the monsoon, they said.