A sense of uncertainty has loomed over Tamil Nadu’s political landscape with the demise of AK Bose (68), the AIADMK legislator representing Tirupprankundram Assembly constituency on Thursday. The death of Bose, a camp follower of Chief Minister Edappady K Palaniswamy and his Deputy O Panneerselvam has put the already fragile AIADMK in a precarious position. It may sound strange, but all political parties in the State have started discussing about the outcome of the by-election necessitated by the death of Bose even before the funeral pyre was lit on Thursday and not without reasons.
The Madras High Court is hearing the pleas filed by the 18 dissident AIADMK legislators who were disqualified by the Speaker in September 2017 under the provisions of the ant-defection law. These rebel MlAs owe their allegiance to VK Sasikala and TTV Dhinakaran.
Edappadi K Palaniswami has 114 MlAs with him in a House with a total strength of 234 members. This is what the Election Commission of India declared when delivering the verdict in the plea filed by both the factions claiming to be the original AIADMK. Since then three MlAs have extended support to the Dhinakaran faction though they continue with the Palaniswami camp for fear of disqualification. There are three more independent MlAs who were elected on the AIADMK symbol and who is ready to jump fence at the right moment. This has made the position of the Palaniswami Government more fragile.
It is in this backdrop that the by-election to be held at Tirupparankundram has become crucial for the AIADMK Government. It is strange that the constituency is going to have the second by-election in as many years. The AIADMK leader S M Seenivel who was elected in the 2016 Assembly election died even before he was sworn in as MlA. He had defeated the DMK candidate by a margin of 23,000 votes and polled 47.32 per cent of the total votes cast in the election.
Bose won the by-election held in October 2016 by a margin of 43,000 votes. Since then the AIADMK got split and the party lost the RK Nagar Assembly constituency to Dhinakaran in the by-election held in April 2017.
The question is whether the AIADMK commands the good will it had enjoyed during the Jayalalithaa years. If the EPS-OPS faction succeeds in retaining the popularity enjoyed by the party in the constituency, the AIADMK Government may sail through.
The DMK, the principal Opposition party is in a resurgent mood. The recent income tax raids on persons close to the Chief Minister, the set back suffered by the State in wooing prospective investors to set up industries in the State and the alleged public resentment against the Rs 10,000 crore Express Corridor connecting Chennai and Salem are some of the issues the DMK would harp on.
The party would try to get a sympathy from the unattached voters by showing the pictures of the 95-year-old M Karunanidhi who has been hospitalised since last Saturday. Chances are that the major Opposition parties, the Congress, the lefts, the MDMK, the VCK and the Islamic outfits would cast their lots with the DMK. Tamil Nadu is in for an interesting political battle even before the sounding of the 2019 lok Sabha election campaign.