Contrary to AIIMS Director Randeep Guleria’s assertions a few days ago about the third wave of Covid-19 coming in just 6-8 weeks, an ICMR study has said that it is likely to come late, maybe after 6-8 months.
NK Arora, the chief of the Centre’s Covid-19 working group of the National Technical Advisory Group on Immunisation (NTAGI), on Sunday said that the third wave of coronavirus could be delayed until December this year.
Quoting the ICMR study in this regard, Dr Arora said, “We’ve window period of 6-8 months to immunise everybody in the country. In the coming days, our target is to administer 1 crore doses every day.”
The Delta Plus new variant of Covid-19, which has created fresh concerns across the country, cannot be yet linked to a third wave of the pandemic, Dr Arora said.
However, he asserted that as variants are linked to new waves, the possibility cannot be dismissed at all.
“Waves are linked to new variants or new mutations so there is a possibility as this is a new variant, but whether it will lead to a third wave it is difficult to answer as it will depend upon two or three things,” Dr Arora added.
India’s first wave of SARSCoV-2 infection began in late January last year with a peak attained in mid-September. This phase was relatively mild compared to the second wave that followed, from mid-February 2021 onwards, exhibiting a more explosive spread across the nation.
A major factor driving this second wave is the emergence of more infectious variants of SARS-CoV-2, principally B.1.1.7 (Alpha variant) and B.1.617.2 (Delta variant), of which the latter has played a dominant role in the last few months.
Third waves have emerged in other countries such as the UK and the USA and are driven by a range of factors, the study adds.
The results suggest that a third wave, if it should occur, is unlikely to be as severe as the second wave, given the extent of spread that has already taken place in India, it said.
AIIMS Chief Dr Guleria on Saturday had, however, said India could see a third wave of coronavirus in six to eight weeks if Covid-appropriate behaviour is not followed and crowding is not prevented.
He said that as many states have eased Covid-related restrictions, it was also necessary for stricter surveillance and area-specific lockdowns in case of a significant surge. “Covid-appropriate behaviour needs to be followed aggressively until a big chunk of the population is vaccinated.
“If Covid-appropriate behaviour is not followed, the third wave can happen in six to eight weeks. We need to work aggressively to prevent another large wave till vaccination kicks in,” Guleria said.