The beleaguered ruling Congress-NCP alliance braces itself for Thursday’s lok Sabha polls in Mumbai with its back to the wall, a far cry from the manner in which it had swept all the six city seats in the 2009 polls. Faced with a huge anti-incumbency stride, the undeniable Modi factor, the MNS’ move to contest only three seats in the city and the presence of relatively formidable AAP candidates in few of the constituencies, the ruling alliance should consider itself lucky if it manages to win even two to three seats in the city.
Meanwhile, the Raj Thackeray-led MNS’ strategic move to spare the Narendra Modi-led party of a contest in Mumbai and field candidates only in three constituencies (all against the Shiv Sena) in the city has rendered electoral arithmetic simpler and chances brighter for the BJP in at least two city constituencies —Mumbai North-East and Mumbai North where the party’s senior leader Kirit Somaiya and Gopal Shetty are contesting, respectively.
Worried initially about the negative fallout of the MNS’ decision to put up the candidates in only three of the city constituencies, the BJP’s alliance saffron partner Shiv Sena — pillion-riding on the Modi bandwagon — does not expect the Raj Thackeray-led party to cut into traditional Maharashtrian votes in a big way.
Playing the role of a spoil sport to the hilt, the MNS had cut into the traditional Sena-BJP vote banks in an unprecedented manner by polling from 1.08 lakh to 1.95 lakh votes in each of the six lok Sabha seats it contested - a factor that contributed to the Congress-NCP alliance bagging all the six seats.
The Sena-BJP tie-up, in the 2009, had lost Mumbai north and Mumbai north-east seats by a narrow margin of 5,778 and 2,933 votes respectively, however, the win margin was comparatively much higher.
like in the 2009 polls, the Shiv Sena and the BJP are contesting three seats each. Unlike in the previous polls, the metropolis is witnessing either triangular or quadrangular contests. The presence of AAP candidates in at least three of the six lok Sabha constituencies has opened up the possibility of the fledgling party cutting into the Congress’ traditional Muslim vote banks.