In the next 15 years, India will emerge as the most populous country in the world surpassing China. At 1.2 billion now, India’s population will touch 1.4 billion in 2025, surpass China in 2028 and reach 1.6 billion by 2050 before it starts declining by the year 2100 at which point India will have 1.5 billion people, according to a study released on Thursday.
The World Population Prospects — The 2012 Revision — released by the United Nations has projected the world population of 7.2 billion in 2013 to increase by almost one billion people within the next 12 years, reaching 8.1 billion in 2025, and to further increase to 9.6 billion in 2050. By the turn of the century, the population will cross a whopping 10.9 billion.
Half of the population growth will be concentrated in a small number of countries. Between 201-2100, eight countries are expected to account for half of the world’s projected population increase. These will be Nigeria, India, Tanzania, Democratic Republic of Congo, Niger, Uganda, Ethiopia and the United States of America.
In comparison, China has 1.3 billion people now with the number expected to grow to 1.4 billion in 2025 after which it starts declining. By 2050, China’s population would have dropped to 1.3 billion and further to 1.03 billion by the turn of the century. Nigeria will have more people than the United States by 2050.
Almost all of additional 3.7 billion people from now to 2100 will enlarge the population of developing countries to over 8 billion in 2050 and further to 9.6 billion 2100. It will mainly be distributed among the population aged 15-59 years (1.6 billion) and 60 or above (1.99 billion) as the number of children under age 15 in developing countries will not increase much.
At the country level, much of the overall increase between 2013 and 2050 is projected to take place in high-fertility countries, mainly in Africa, as well as countries with large populations such as India, Indonesia, Pakistan and Philippines and the United States of America. Globally, total fertility is expected to fall from 2.53 children per woman in 2005-2010 to 2.24 in 2045-2050 and to 1.99 in 2100.