The Centre on Tuesday told the Rajya Sabha that it is closely following the virus trajectory globally, given the emergence of its new variants even as it almost rejected various mathematical models meant for predicting coronavirus waves, saying that they have repeatedly failed to give reliable results due to a small sample size.
In a written reply to a question in the Rajya Sabha, Minister of State for Health Bharati Pravin Pawar further said the network of Indian SARS-CoV-2 Genomics Consortium (INSACOG) of laboratories is undertaking whole genome sequencing of samples for a timely detection of the mutant variants of the virus.
On whether researchers at the Indian institutes of technology (IITs) have predicted a fourth wave of the pandemic in the country between June and August, she said the IIT Kanpur has clarified that it has not forecast a fourth wave of Covid-19.
It is an independent study conducted by a team of researchers from the Department of Mathematics and Statistics at the institute that has prepared a mathematical model and submitted the same to a pre-print server for experts to comment. The same is not peer-reviewed, Pawar said.
Modelling studies are based on a certain set of inputs either based on real-world scenarios or approximations of those inputs that are not available (which may vary in accuracy according to the technique used), she stated.
"Often these studies involve taking a relatively small actual sample and extrapolating the result to the entire population. While this may achieve near accurate results for a small homogenous country or region, such techniques have failed repeatedly to give reliable results for a large, diverse population," the minister said.
Later, at the launch of the BRICS Vaccine R&D Centre and Workshop on Vaccine Cooperation through video-conference here, Union Health Minister Mansukh Mandaviya said that India is willing to offer its robust manufacturing industry for developing vaccines for BRICS countries as well as the world.
India has one of the world's largest vaccine manufacturing industries which supplies vaccines to more than 150 countries and meets 65-70 per cent of the WHO's vaccine requirements, Mandaviya said "India is willing to offer its robust vaccine manufacturing industry for developing vaccines for BRICS countries (Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa) as well as the world," the minister said.