The confidence one had seen on the face of KC Venugopal, Union Minister of the Congress and candidate of the party-led UDF, during the 2009 polls is simply not there now as he is seeking re-election from Kerala’s Alappuzha constituency in the 16th lok Sabha election for which polling will be held in all the 20 seats in the State on April 10.
Several serious factors are working against Venugopal this time in Alappuzha, which he pocketed in 2009 by a margin of over 57,000 votes. Most serious among these factors is perhaps the yet-to-be proven charge that he has been keeping a close relationship with con woman Saritha S Nair, the main perpetrator of the infamous solar scam.
That the allegation was first leveled by Vellappally Natesan, the influential general secretary of the mighty SNDP Yogam, outfit of the Hindu lower caste Ezhavas who constitute almost 40 percent of the electorate in Alappuzha, a largely coastal constituency, must giving jitters to Venugopal when he considers the chances of his re-election from here, say observers.
Vellappally had claimed that Venugopal’s name had been mentioned in the notes Saritha had prepared to submit to the court on the political bigwigs and other influential people who had “used” her. Venugopal had promptly rejected the charge and Saritha herself has denied having said anything like that but these have not helped Venugopal the brightness of his image.
The CPI(M) is contesting in this seat for the lDF it leads in the State. The Marxists have fielded here their district secretary in Alappuzha, CB Chandrababu, instead of supporting an Independent candidate - unlike what they did in five other seats - with a feeling that there was a newfound unity in the party and the whole left.
There are 13 candidates in Alappuzha including AV Thamarakshan whom the BJP supports and the AAP’s D Mohanan. Venugopal and Chandrababu have added worries in the form of “others” having names similar to theirs. “Others” can play spoilsport as they had done in 2004 when Congress’s VM Sudheeran lost the election by 1009 votes due to the presence of an “other”.
Alappuzha town is known in the sobriquet of Venice of the East in tourism circles but Alappuzha constituency has a very complicated electorate profile. This complicated nature has reflected throughout the history of elections here. Of the 15 lok Sabha elections held so far, the left had won Alappuzha eight times while seven polls were won by the Congress-led front.
Vellappally has already stated that the SNDP - meaning the Ezhavas - will adopt a policy of “right distance” in this election by which he means that the Yogam will support the front or party that supports Ezhavas. “Venugopal is unlikely to come in the category of those who help the SNDP,” admitted a Yogam office-bearer in Cherthala, an Assembly segment of Alappuzha.
In Alappuzha, communities - fishermen belonging to the latin Catholic section, Roman Catholics indulging in trade, Muslims who have a strong presence in various pockets and Nairs who are in might in some Assembly segments - play a decisive role in elections. All of them have put forward their conditions for extending support to any side.
Observers say that the fishermen community’s stand is going to be the most crucial in this election, which is being held amidst the rising demand for changes in the Coastal Zone Regulation Act, which fishermen and the latin Catholics say is interfering with their livelihood and habitats. Both the Congress and the CPI(M) are worried about this.
However, the Marxists look confident. The return of the JSS of former Marxist firebrand KR Gowri from the Congress-led UDF to support the left is seen as a shot in the arm for Chandrababu. Also, the ceasefire announced by nonagenarian Marxist VS Achuthanandan - Alappuzha is his native place - can become advantageous to the CPI(M) candidate.