The death of Kerala’s Assembly Speaker and senior Congress leader G Karthikeyan on Saturday has brought fresh trouble for the scam-beleaguered Congress-led ruling UDF as a by-election has to be held to fill the vacancy in the House.
At the same time, the UDF on Monday decided to field Deputy Speaker N Sakthan of the Congress to the post of Speaker. Chief Minister Oommen Chandy said that Congress president Sonia Gandhi had given permission to make candidate for the Speaker’s post. As per the seat-position in the Assembly, Sakthan is sure to be elected as Speaker.
The inevitability of having to go through a bypoll has come for the UDF perhaps at the most inappropriate time it has had in the four years it has been in power thanks to the several scandals it is facing and other allegations against the various Government departments including the Police.
The solar scam in which the Chief Minister is accused of direct involvement, the charge against Finance Minister KM Mani that he had taken bribe from bar owners, allegations of efforts to protect murderer-businessman Muhammad Nisham, etc are some of the worst scandals which could work against the UDF in the bypoll.
Karthikeyan had been representing in the Assembly the Aruvikkara constituency (before delimitation it was Aryanad) in Thiruvananthapuram district. He had won the seat for the first time in 1991 and had retained it in all the four elections since then. In the 2011 polls, he had retained the Aruvikkara seat by a margin of 10,674 votes.
Though the result of a bypoll in Aruvikkara will not have any impact on the existence of the Government, it is decisive for both the UDF and the CPI(M)-led Opposition lDF in the context of the Assembly election due in April, 2016. It is to be seen whether the Election Commission will hold the by-election along with the civic polls to be held in September.
Speculations have already started over whom the UDF will field in Aruvikkara for the by-poll. Congress sources said that the party has several leaders who can win the seat. However, the top leadership is said to be of the feeling that
MT Sulekha, widow of Karthikeyan, should be fielded as candidate in Aruvikkara provided she is prepared to contest.
It was the RSP which used to contest the Aruvikkara seat for the lDF but as that party is now a constituent of the UDF, the CPI(M) is likely to take it over. In that case, former Minister M Vijayakumar is likely to be the lDF candidate.
Though the lDF does not have any special advantage at this juncture as far as a bypoll is concerned, especially in Aruvikkara known as a Congress stronghold, observers say that it will not be easy for the UDF as it is going through one of the worst phases of its entire history due to scandals apart from the inescapable anti-incumbency factor.
Kerala had seen two Assembly by-elections since the UDF came to power in May, 2011 and both were won by that front. Congress leaders said that they would begin discussions on the subject only after the seven-day official mourning for Karthikeyan. “The important matter right now is the election of the new Speaker,” said a top Congress leader.