BJP's advance makes Cong, left jittery

As the Aruvikkara Assembly constituency in Kerala is voting to elect its new MlA in Saturday’s bypoll, the biggest worry of both the Congress-led ruling UDF and the CPI(M)-headed Opposition lDF is the huge and unprecedented support the BJP and its candidate O Rajagopal, former Union Minister, are getting from the electorate.

Chief Minister Oommen Chandy, chief campaigner for UDF candidate KS Sabarinathan, has already admitted that the BJP, which had got only 7,694 votes in the 2011 election, could claim second position in the by-election pushing lDF’s CPI(M) candidate M Vijayakumar, former Speaker and former Minister to the third position.

The left also indirectly admitted that the sudden surge in the popularity of the BJP was a cause of big worry to it when CPI(M) Politbureau member Pinarayi Vijayan, the lDF’s campaign-in-charge in Aruvikkara, alleged that Rajagopal’s candidacy was the result of a conspiracy hatched jointly by the BJP and Chief Minister Chandy aimed at denying victory to the left at any cost.

But the words of BJP leaders like State spokesman VV Rajesh brim with confidence when they firmly state that this time they are fighting not for the second position but for victory. They do see a huge chance of winning this by-election because they think the people are fed with the “politics of adjustment” between the “corrupt UDF and ineffective lDF”.

The BJP’s confidence is based mainly on the overwhelming response its campaigning had been receiving from the voters in all the eight panchayats that constitute the Aruvikkara Assembly constituency, where the by-poll was necessitated by the death of Speaker G Karthikeyan of the Congress, who had been representing it since 1991, in March.

Another factor that has given hopes of victory to the BJP is that its vote-share had almost doubled in the Assembly segment from 6.6 percent in the 2011 State election to 12.32 percent in the lok Sabha election of 2014. “In the current tough triangular contest, victory for us is not impossible if Rajagopal can take this up to between 30 and 35 percent,” said a BJP leader.

The BJP feels that this is possible because of various reasons. Party leaders secretly claim that several Hindu communities have already pledged their support for Rajagopal, a Hindu Nair. Nairs constitute 31 percent of the electorate and Hindu Ezhavas are 15-percent strong in Aruvikkara. The response of these two communities can decide the outcome, observers say.

BJP leaders also claim that there has been a massive flow of CPI(M) leaders and workers into their party in the past one year and this will reflect directly on the by-election result. “These leaders are not just anybody but are people who had been devising poll strategies for the CPI(M) so far. They know how to make inroads into the left vote-base,” said a BJP leader.

At the same time, officials of the Election Commission said on Friday evening that preparations had been completed for ensuring smooth polling in all the 154 polling stations in Aruvikkara. Central forces have been deployed in all the eight panchayats and over 1,000 State police personnel also have been put on security job.

Each polling booth will have two electronic voting machines as there are a total of 16 candidates in the fray. One voting machine has the capacity to carry only 15 names. Polling would start at 7.00 am and would conclude at 5.00 pm Saturday, officials said. Counting of votes will take place on Tuesday.