Though both Shiv Sena and BJP are outwardly optimistic of inking the seat-sharing tie-up between them within a week or so for the forthcoming Maharashtra Assembly polls, it is quite unlikely that the two long-term saffron allies will be in a position to do so. For, this time around, the seat-sharing negotiations between them will not be as smooth as they always used to be in the past.
For, fresh from its superlative performance in the lok Sabha polls which saw it win 23 of the 26 seats it contested in Maharashtra (while Shiv Sena won 18 out of 22 seats contested), the BJP has been hawkish in its approach in the seat-sharing negotiations with the Sena and so much so that it has been pushing its long-term saffron ally to dump the time-tested seat-sharing Mahajan formula evolved in the early nineties for both the lok Sabha and Assembly polls.
As per the formula devised, late BJP leader Pramod Mahajan in consultations with Shiv Sena chief Bal Thackeray, there was a clear-cut understanding between two saffron alliance partners. As the per the understanding, the BJP was to be the senior ally when it came to the lok Sabha polls, while the Sena would be the senior partner in the State Assembly polls.
As per the Mahajan formula, the BJP has over the past several lok Sabha elections, contested 26 (out of 48 seats), while the Sena has fielded candidates for the remaining 22 seats in the State. In the State Assembly polls involving a total of 288 seats, the seat-sharing formula between the two saffron alliance partners has always been: 171(Shiv Sena) and 117 BJP.
However, in the 2009 State Assembly polls, the Shiv Sena made an exception and gave two of its seats — one each at the behest of late Gopinath Munde and Nitin Gadkari — to the BJP, thus making the seat sharing formula 169 (Sena): 119 (BJP).
Ever since the lok Sabha poll outcome, a dominant BJP has been pushing the Shiv Sena to dump the old seat-sharing formula and give it more number of seats to contest this time around. In the beginning, the State BJP leaders were insisting that Sena share the total number of seats equally — 144: 144 with it. However, it has now scaled down its demand to 135 seats as against the earlier claim for 144 seats.
The BJP has also been angling for the Chief Minister’s post — a post held by the Shiv Sena when the two parties ruled the State between 1995 and 1999 during which late Gopinath Munde was the deputy Chief Minister.
On its part, the Shiv Sena is no mood to tie the BJP line. It has amply clear to the BJP that it would not spare more number of seats than what is due to it (117) under the time-tested Mahajan formula.
While, the Shiv Sena leaders have not only been vociferous in their rejection of the BJP’s demand for a bigger seat share but have also gone to town saying that their party was prepared to go it alone in the polls, Sena president Uddhav Thackeray has steadfastly ignored the state BJP leaders’ clamour for bigger seat-share, saying: “The BJP has so far not made any formal demand for more number of seats. Hence, there is no question of my reacting to their statements. If such a situation arises, then I will speak to the BJP’s central leaders,” Uddhav has said.
Unlike in the past when they would contest the polls as a two-party alliance, the Shiv Sena and BJP have cobbled an alliance with four other smaller parties RPI (A), Raju Shetty-led Swabhimani Paksha, the Mahadeo Jankar-led Rashtriya Samaj Paksha and Vinayajk Mete-led Shiv Sangram – which have come together as “Maha-Yuti” (grand alliance).
The presence of four more parties in the grand alliance has not come in the way of seat-sharing negotiations between the Shiv Sena and BJP. For, both the Sena and BJP have agreed to spare equal number of seats to the four seats from their respective quotas. While the BJP has come out with a formula of 9+9 seats ( total 18 seats to the four parties), the Sena’s formula is 8+8 seats (total 16 seats)
leaders of the Sena and BJP have so far held two formal seat-sharing talks for the Assembly between them. Though State BJP president Devendra Fadnavis had announced that the “Maha-Yuti” would finalise the sharing of seats by August 15, the Sena and BJP leaders have not made any headway in their seat-sharing negotiations so far.
“Whatever the BJP leaders may be telling you, there is absolutely no change in the seat-sharing formula. The formula remains the same: 171 (Shiv Sena):117 (BJP). We will be allotting equal number of seats to our other allies in the Maha-Yuti from our respective quotas. I am more than optimistic that we – both the Sena and BJP-- will ink at the seat-sharing tie-up before the start of the nominations for the State Assembly polls,” senior Sena leader Subhash Desai told “The Pioneer” on Thursday evening. Desai was present in both the rounds of seat-sharing talks held so far among the leaders of “Maha-Yuti” constituents.
However, other senior Sena leaders do not share Desai’s optimism. “We are keeping our fingers crossed. Come what may, we will not accept unreasonable demands by the BJP in the seat-sharing negotiations. There is no question of our agreeing to allotting the BJP more number of seats than what is due to it under the Mahajan formula.. If the BJP insists on having its way, we will have no alternative but to go it alone in the polls.. But, I do not think that the BJP will trigger such a situation,” a close associate of Sena president Uddhav Thackeray told this newspaper.
“We are also following the developments in Haryana where it has gone back on its earlier promise of declaring Kuldeep Bishnoi (of Haryana Janhit Congress) as the chief minister. Though we do not expect the BJP to conduct itself in a manner it has done in Haryana, our stand is clear: we will not let the BJP dominate us in the seat-sharing talks for the State Assembly polls,” the Thackeray aide said.