In its bid to recapture power in Maharashtra, the ruling BJP-Shiv Sena alliance goes into Monday’s Assembly polls as favourites against a dispirited Opposition Congress-NCP alliance that is fighting a desperate battle for political survival in a State that it ruled for 15-long years.
As much as it is for the ruling saffron alliance, it is a high-stake election for 49-year-old Devendra Fadnavis who, if the BJP-Shiv Sena is voted back to power, will re-occupy the saddle as the Chief Minister for the second consecutive term. Incidentally, he is the only second Chief Minister of Maharashtra after late VP Naik to have completed his full five-year term.
Monday’s polls are also a litmus test for the Congress, which ruled the State for five decades either as a single party or in alliance with the NCP but currently finds itself in total disarray. Going by the fact that Rahul Gandhi addressed just six public rallies and Congress president Sonia Gandhi (as also Priyanka Gandhi Vadra) stayed from the poll campaign, the Congress appears to have given up on Maharashtra even before the polls.
The polls will also test the continued acceptability or otherwise of 78-year-old Sharad Pawar, who shouldered the responsibility of being the sole full-fledged campaigner for the NCP. Dismissing the ruling BJP’s claim that he would “retired” permanently after the Assembly polls, Pawar went to town with much-discussed comment “Abhi tho main Jawan hu... I will pack off everyone home first then I will go..”. As against 24 public rallies he had addressed in the 2014 Assembly polls, Pawar addressed 65 political rallies –including the one in Satara amid pouring rain—in the current polls.
The electoral battle is also significant from the Shiv Sena’s point of view. The 53-year-old Shiv Sena launched Aditya Thackeray into electoral politics. Incidentally, 29-year-old Aditya is the first Thackeray in four generations of Thackerays to be contesting an election. If the saffron alliance returns to power in the State, Aditya – who is contesting from Worli constituency in south-central Mumbai – will be part of the new government. It remains to be seen if he will land the deputy chief minister's post.
The election will also make or mar the Raj Thackeray-led Maharashtra Navnirman Sena (MNS), which had skipped the 2019 Lok Sabha polls but is contesting 101 seats in the Assembly election. The MNS, which had made an impressive debut in the 2009 Assembly by winning 13 seats, put up a pathetic performance in the 2014 Assembly polls, by winning a mere one seat out of total 219 seats it had contested.
An estimated 8.98 crore voters, who are eligible to exercise their franchise in Monday’s, will decide the fate of 3,237 candidates including scores of political bigwigs, perhaps the only chief ministerial aspirant, scores of ministerial aspirants and Gen-next politicians, in Monday's polls.
With dice loaded heavily in its favour, the ruling saffron alliance is going all out not only to post a highest winning tally, but also to decimate the Congress and NCP which had collectively won just 83 seats out of the total 288 seats in the 2014 State Assembly polls and together established leads in mere 45 Assembly segments in the 2019 Lok Sabha polls.
While the BJP-Shiv Sena alliance has a lot to look forward to — even in the face of a threat posed by 50-odd rebels in the fray, the Congress-NCP alliance hopes against hope to put up a respectable performance that will help the two parties to set their respective houses in order and stage a comeback at a later stage.
In the current polls, the BJP is contesting as many as 164 seats, while the Shiv Sena has fielded candidates in the remaining 124 constituencies. The break-up of seats contested by other political parties is as follows: Congress- 147, NCP-121, MNS- 101, BSP- 262, Vanchit Bahujan Aghadi (VBA)- 288, CPI-16 and CPI(M)- 8. There are 604 candidates from other registered parties, while the remaining 1,400 candidates are Independents.
In the 2014 polls which the saffron alliance partners had contested on their respective strengths, the BJP had won an all-time high of 122 seats as against 260 out of the total 288 seats it had contested. The Shiv Sena had walked away with 63 seats out of 282 seats it had contested. On the other hand, the Congress bagged 42 seats out of 287 seats it had contested, while the NCP emerged fourth by winning 41 out of 278 it had contested.
More than Prime Minister Narendra Modi and BJP president Amit Shah, the focus in the Assembly polls has been on Fadnavis, who led the BJP-Shiv Sena alliance’s campaign. He had hit the campaign trail as early as August 1, seven weeks before the Election Commission declared the date for the Assembly polls. In all, he covered 220 Assembly constituencies during his campaigning.
Fadnavis is contesting from the prestigious Nagpur South-West seat. His main rival is Congress' Ashish Deshmukh. There are also 18 contenders including seven independents, in the fray.
Two former Chief Ministers Prithiviraj Chavan and Ashok Chavan are two other key candidates. While Prithviraj is taking on BJP’s Atulbaba Suresh Bhosale in his home constituency of Karad south in Satara district, Ashok Chavan is contesting against the BJP's Shrinivas alias Bapusaheb Deshmukh Gorthekar in Bhokar constituency of Nanded.
Two former Deputy Chief Ministers —Ajit Pawar and Chhagan Bhujbal — are in the fray. While Ajitdada — as Ajit Pawar is known in the Maharashtra politics — is locked in a contest with BJP's Gopichand Kundlik Padalkar in his home constituency of Baramati, Bhujbal is seeking re-election from his stronghold Yevla against Shiv Sena's Sambhaji Sahebrao Pawar and six others including three independents.
Maharashtra BJP president Chandrakant Patil is contesting polls from Kothrud in Pune, while his Congress counterpart Babasaheb Thorat and State NCP chief Jayant Patil are contesting from Sangamner in Ahmednagar and Islampur in Sangli in western Maharashtra, respectively.
Late Gopinath Munde's daughter and State minister Pankaja Munde and his nephew and leader of the Opposition in the State Legislative Council are locked in a fierce contest in Parli constituency of Beed district in Marathawada region.
From among the Gen-next politicians, veteran Congress leader Sushilkumar Shinde's daughter Praniti Shinde is seeking re-election from Solapur South Central in western Maharashtra, while former Chief Minister Shivajirao Nilangekar's son Ashok Patil Nilangekar is contesting from Nilanga constituency.Former Chief Minister Narayan Rane’s Nitesh Rane is contesting as a BJP candidate against Narayan Rane’s former aide Satish Sawant of the Shiv Sena.
Similarly, late Vilasrao Deshmukh's son elder Amit is seeking re-election from Latur City seat, while his younger son Dhiraj is contesting from Latur Rural. Sharad Pawar’s grand-nephew Rohit Pawar is making electoral debut from Karjat-Jamkhed in Ahmednagar district.
Prominent candidates in Mumbai are BJP’s city president Mangalprabhat Lodha, who is contesting from upmarket Malabar Hill constituency against Congress' Hira Navaji Devasi and eight others and NCP’s city president Nawab Malik, who is taking on Sena's Tukaram Ramkrushna Kate and 13 others from Anushakti Nagar.
Mumbai Mayor Vishwanath Pandurang Mahadeshwar of the Shiv Sena is battling it out against Sena’s rebel and sitting party MLA Trupti Prakash Sawant, who was expelled recently by the Sena, and the Congress’ Zeeshan Baba Siddique.
In Nala Sopara, former encounter specialist and Sena candidate Pradeep Sharma is pitted against Bahujan Vikas Aghadi's sitting MLA Kshitij Hitendra Thakur.
Excepting in constituencies where there are strong candidates of the MNS or the Prakash Ambedkar-led VBA, there are straight contests all over state.
On its part, the BJP is taking on the NCP candidates in 60 constituencies, while it is pitted against the Congress candidates in 94 constituencies. The BJP is engaged in contests with other parties in 10 remaining seats.
The Shiv Sena is locked in a straight contest with the NCP in 57 seats, while it slugging it out against the Congress in 52 seats. The Sena is fighting other parties in the remaining 15 seats.
The MNS may cut into the Shiv Sena and BJP vote banks in a dozen of the 101 seats it is contests. Interesting, the Shiv Sena is covertly supporting the MNS in several of the constituencies where the BJP has put up its candidates.
There are nearly 50 rebels belonging to the BJP and Shiv Sena in the fray. At least 30 to 35 of them may votes of either BJP or the Shiv Sena.
The VBA, which damaged the chances of the Congress and NCP in Lok Sabha polls, is contesting 270-odd seats. But, its presence in the Assembly polls may not do much of harm to any of the parties in the State Assembly polls.